Until early this year, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives were widely expected to win the last federal election in a landslide, with polling projecting more than 200 seats. The cost of living, inflation, and a deepening housing crisis had put the then-Justin Trudeau government on the defensive, and Canadians—either rightly or wrongly—placed much of the blame on him. By mid-2024, Trudeau’s caucus was internally telling the leader that he’d become a drag on the party, risking third- or even fourth-party status in the House if he stayed on until the next election. Under public-opinion pressure and tired of internal sniping, Trudeau finally announced his exit plans in early January.

That opened the door for the Liberals to rebuild and bounce back. Facing threats from American President Donald Trump over trade tariffs and an expected downturn in the economy, Canadians turned to Mark Carney as the person best equipped to handle these challenges. Carney is the only living person in the world to have led two central banks in G7 countries, with experience at the most senior level in both government and the private sector. The Liberal Party’s base rallied around him, and he swept all 338 ridings in the March leadership election. In the subsequent April 28 general election, Canadians handed him a strong mandate: 169 seats—just three short of a majority in the 343-member House of Commons. 

Carney officially became prime minister in March, quickly called a general election to capitalize on his popularity, and spent his first weeks in office campaigning. In the recent months, the economy has only worsened. In July, more than 40,000 Canadians lost their jobs; in August, the number rose to over 60,000. With plans to cut the federal public service by up to 15 per cent over three years, thousands more layoffs are expected. Nearly every major economic indicator is trending in the wrong direction. The Nov. 4 budget is expected to show a number of cuts and a high deficit. 

Since winning office, Carney has announced major projects aimed at creating jobs and jumpstarting growth. But so far, the results have yet to materialize, and public patience is wearing thin. People appear to be impatient. Public opinion analysts say Canadians are not in a partisan mood—they want Carney to succeed. Yet unlike in ordinary times, when politics fades in between elections, Canadians are paying close attention now because their economic livelihoods are at stake.

For Carney, the time for promises is over. He must begin delivering tangible results—before it’s too late.

The Hill Times