It has been said that history is written by the winners. Nowhere is that case more than in politics. No matter your skills, no matter how hard you work, no matter how smart you and your team are, every decision comes down to a single binary electoral judgement: did you win or lose?

For the winners, every decision and maneuver was brilliant and prescient. For the losers, every decision and maneuver was doomed to failure. But even by this cruel and unremitting standard, the predicament of Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre in the summer of 2025 is especially bleak and bitter.

It’s not just that the party lost, but the manner of their undoing that what is so painfully striking. After enjoying a 20-point lead over then-prime minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals for two years, they watched it evaporate in a matter of weeks in 2025. 

In Poilievre, the Conservatives have a leader of tremendous skill, agility, and experience who was beaten by a political rookie in Mark Carney, who is the epitome of the “globalist elite” that Poilievre has routinely derided as being out of touch with the needs of average Canadians. Worse, Poilievre suffered the indignity of losing the Ottawa-area seat he’d held for almost two decades, while Carney swept to victory in the riding next door.

The Conservative Party of Canada scored the best vote percentage in the party’s short history. But in the end, they had to settle for finding comfort at having held the Liberals to a minority, albeit a very strong one that could last quite a while.

Much worse is the fact that Carney has systematically annexed a good chunk of the Conservative issue set: cutting taxes, legislating to streamline major project approvals, committing to massive increases in defence spending, and cutting government spending by reducing the size of the public service. This is political pickpocketing on a historically epic scale.

The nine-year record and legacy of Justin Trudeau’s premiership are as though they never happened. Indeed, Trudeau’s image and presence have been erased from Liberal memory so completely that it is not difficult to imagine that the Carney cabinet—many of whom held senior positions in the Trudeau government—would not admit to ever having met him.

And there is the real rub for the Conservatives. Government news releases routinely refer to “Canada’s new government.” Notwithstanding the closeness of the 2025 vote count, Carney’s approval has shot up to a level that suggests he’s enjoying a political honeymoon the kind typically experienced by a new government coming into power on a wave of voter desire for a change. 

This is the Conservatives’ dilemma as they head into the summer. Instead of storming the ramparts of government with the promise of remaking it in the Conservative image, they are girding for yet another leadership review after not just another election loss, but also a crushing reversal of fortune.

There is no doubt that Poilievre is well-liked by the party grassroots who view him as a genuine conservative, unlike his unlamented predecessor, Erin O’Toole. Poilievre also has a firm grip on the party machinery. Looking to make the most of these advantages, he argued for an early leadership review to head off any nascent internal revolt.

But he first has to return to the House. His choice of a rural Alberta seat should ensure him a big byelection win, but smacks of a leader who can be a bridge to the urban and suburban voters the party needs to win, but continues to have a heck of a time winning over.

All Poilievre and his team have to show for their time in office is snatching defeat from the jaws of what seemed to be certain victory. The loss was bad. But the “take no prisoners” attitude that the Conservative brain trust brought to everything from dissent to candidate recruitment to media relations could have been stomached with the promise of victory. Having failed so miserably in the latter, they now have to remake how they do the former, something for which they have not yet shown any instinct.

So, as you relax this summer, spare a few kind thoughts for the Conservatives. Poilievre has truly entered the dog days of his leadership. He has nothing to offer Conservatives but the fact that he is clearly “one of them,” and the promise that they will never again be able to feel confident of victory under his leadership. 

A hard summer, indeed. 

Ken Polk is a public affairs counsellor at Compass Rose Group. He previously served as chief speechwriter, deputy director of communications, and legislative assistant to then-prime minister Jean Chrétien.

The Hill Times