Every week The Hill Times asks a crack team of political pundits to opine on how the campaign is going, and what the party leaders should do next. This week our three politicos are tackling the weak spots that the big three party leaders are protecting, or hiding, during this election campaign

We hear from:

• Dan Arnold, the chief strategy officer at the research consultancy Pollara, and former top researcher for Liberal Party election campaigns and in the Prime Minister’s Office under Justin Trudeau.
• Josie Sabatino, a senior consultant at Summa Strategies, former communications director to then-Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, ex-Conservative Party campaign spokesperson, and Hill Times columnist.
• Angella MacEwen, a senior economist at the Canadian Union of Public Employees, policy fellow at the Broadbent Institute, and former NDP candidate in Ottawa Centre.

THE QUESTION: What is your party leader’s biggest weakness or vulnerability in this election campaign?

DAN ARNOLD

“The one-word answer is ‘inexperience.’ It isn’t just that this is [Prime Minister Mark] Carney’s first election as a party leader. He’s never ran to be an MP before. Or a school board trustee. Or, as far as I know, class president. 

“Talking to voters in a Liberal leadership race is very different from talking to voters in a general election. And answering media questions about an interest rate cut when you’re Bank of Canada governor is very different from answering media questions about your blind trust when you’re a candidate to be prime minister.

“For voters, Carney’s political inexperience isn’t limiting. If anything, it’s an asset at a time when everyone is cynical towards politicians. Voters look at someone who hasn’t run for office before and assume he hasn’t picked up the same bad habits that career politicians have. But Carney’s lack of political experience means he won’t always say or do the right thing, and that will lead to bumpy days on the campaign trail. To date, these bumps haven’t knocked him off the road, but there’s always the risk they will.”

JOSIE SABATINO

“Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s main vulnerability lies in striking the right balance between his affordability message and the need to project confidence to an electorate that is anxious and ready to support the political leader best positioned to stand up to U.S. President [Donald] Trump. 

“To solidify his stance on dealing with Trump, Poilievre used a morning keynote address to a Toronto audience this week to lay out the Conservative plan to introduce reciprocal tariffs, and accelerate renegotiations to replace the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement. He also shared his vision for bolstering Canadian industry, cutting taxes, and accelerating major projects.

“Message discipline has long been Poilievre’s kryptonite, and anyone expecting him to abandon the affordability focus in favour of a singular message on Canada-U.S. relations would be mistaken. While voters will likely hear more about Poilievre’s plan to deal with Trump in the coming weeks, expect this always to tie back to how the Conservatives plan to make life more affordable for Canadians.”

ANGELLA MACEWEN

“I think the biggest challenge that Jagmeet Singh and New Democrats face in this election is also their greatest strength. The threat that Donald Trump presents to Canada’s sovereignty and our economy has driven voters to seek a majority government, and so voters may be hesitant to vote for New Democrats if that could mean a minority government. 

“There is so much uncertainty and fear around tariffs and how Canada should respond to this threat, this response from voters is understandable. But New Democrats have been central to so much of what makes Canada different from the United States, from health care and child-care to worker’s rights.

“I think as the election continues, this initial weakness could turn into a strength as Jagmeet reminds voters how important it is to elect New Democrats to defend these Canadian values as we respond to the existential thread of Donald Trump. Our public health-care system is especially vulnerable right now, and with Jagmeet’s wins on dental care and pharmacare he has a lot of credibility on this issue.”

This piece first appeared in Politics This Morning, your go-to source for insider news, analysis, and updates on where all the key political players are that day. Get more insider coverage directly to your inbox from The Hill Times‘ editor Peter Mazereeuw and reporter Riddhi Kachhela in this subscriber-only daily newsletter. Sign up here.

The Hill Times