Some Liberal MPs say they are expecting a boisterous national caucus meeting discussing their leader’s future following a preview at a lively Ontario caucus gathering Monday where outspoken Justin Trudeau supporters pushed back on efforts to oust the prime minister. 

Trudeau’s (Papineau, Que.) supporters appeared “pumped up” voicing strong backing for the prime minister while blasting those advocating for a leadership change, according to two Ontario Liberal MPs The Hill Times spoke with, and a third MP briefed on the meeting. Though it was scheduled from 7-9 p.m., it ran over by an hour because of the level of interest from MPs wanting to speak on the issue.

Liberal sources familiar with the dissenting MPs’ strategy said that it would be a “tactical mistake” for cabinet ministers or other MPs on the Trudeau side to shout them down. If that were to happen, they said, they plan to respond in kind.

The Hill Times spoke with 15 Liberal MPs between Oct. 21 and Oct. 22, as well as former senior Liberals about their thinking and recent developments. Most of the sources chose not to speak on the record given the sensitive nature of caucus discussions.

For the past two weeks, The Hill Times and other news outlets have been reporting that Liberal MPs have been holding private meetings, and discussed signing a pledge in an effort to change leadership before the next election. Sources say there are about 30 Liberal MPs expressing serious concerns over Trudeau’s leadership. The high-stakes national caucus meeting on Wednesday is expected to make clear whether the Liberal leader can withstand the mounting challenge, say Liberal MPs and insiders. Some believe the crucial meeting could also lead to expulsions from the caucus, depending on how events unfold.

“I don’t know how strong this group is going to be, and is it going to be a group of people who have either been crossed by the PMO, have felt left out, [or] there is personal vendetta. Like there’s so many components to it,” said one Liberal MP who said they are staying neutral on the question of Trudeau as leader.

“Once it’s revealed who these folks are, it will kind of set the stage for what happens next.”

Liberal MPs told The Hill Times that “anything is possible” at the Oct. 23 national caucus meeting. Those possibilities range from an unlikely resignation to the beginnings of a conversation about who should lead the party in the next election.

“If there’s a few MPs that are so, like, really, really strong about it [change in leadership], they [Trudeau] can try an ultimate move and just say, ‘you know what, if that’s the case, then step out of caucus and you’re no longer a candidate,” said a second Liberal MP. “They could set an example like that. If they really wanted to. It would be high stakes, but why couldn’t they do that? If there was, like, three or four of them that are the ringleaders.”

This MP also suggested that if some unpleasant exchanges were to take place, it could also politically damage the party. They said a key factor would be how many MPs are in the dissenting group.

“We could anticipate some heavy casualties and damage,” said the MP. “If those numbers are below 20, then they’ll probably just go to war with those MPs, right? If it’s above 20, then they’re gonna have to, like, compromise with them. And I don’t know what that means. Another thing that’s possible is a big reset, and that can mean many different things.”

The dissenting group’s chief concern is that the party has been trailing the Conservatives by double-digit margins for over a year, and after nine years in office, many Canadians have tuned out the prime minister. While the names of these MPs have not been made public, they are expected to emerge at Wednesday’s highly anticipated closed-door national caucus meeting where Liberal leadership will be the main—if not the sole—topic of debate. Sources familiar with the dissenting group say that while some of these MPs have been involved in fierce policy battles in the recent past, they are now united in their efforts to push for leadership change.

Some of the dissenting MPs were also part of the group of nine MPs who, after their party lost the Toronto-St. Paul’s, Ont., June byelection, sent a letter to national caucus chair Brenda Shanahan (Châteaguay-Lacolle, Que.) requesting an in-person national caucus meeting. They wanted to discuss why their party lost the safe Liberal seat that had been held for decades. Shanahan declined the request, citing “logistical” reasons. Trudeau, however, called almost all MPs in person to get their feedback. In those calls, sources said, MPs urged the prime minister to change senior staff and shuffle his cabinet—among other suggestions—but up until now, they complain nothing has happened.

Last month, the Liberals also lost another traditionally safe riding, LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, Que., in a byelection. The dissenting MPs argue that the two losses confirmed the national public opinion polling data. Some MPs made comparisons to the 2018 Ontario provincial election where the Kathleen Wynne Liberals not only lost the government, but failed to regain official party status—and have yet to regain it.

When Parliament is in session, all national parties hold their respective caucus meetings on Wednesday mornings from 10 a.m. to noon to discuss political strategy. Tomorrow’s national caucus meeting will be the first since reports surfaced two weeks ago about Liberal MPs holding private meetings. So far, only two MPs—Sean Casey (Charlottetown, P.E.I.) and Wayne Long (Saint John-Rothesay, N.B.)—have publicly called for Trudeau’s resignation. Liberal MP Alexandra Mendès (Brossard—Saint-Lambert, Que.) has also publicly said that her constituents believe the Liberals need a new leader.

In interviews, Liberal sources and MPs in the dissenting group have emphasized that their concerns are not personal against the prime minister. The MPs say they are communicating their constituents’ wishes. The sources argued that their efforts are aimed at preventing the Conservatives from winning a majority government, as current seat projections suggest a supermajority for Pierre Poilievre (Carleton, Ont.) in the next election.

The Hill Times first reported on Liberal MPs Chandra Arya (Nepean, Ont.) and Yasir Naqvi (Ottawa Centre, Ont.) sending emails Oct. 12 to the caucus, chastizing those calling for a change in leadership. They said that these efforts will weaken their own party and strengthen the Conservatives.

Shortly after these emails were circulated, three Liberal sources told The Hill Times that Shanahan sent her own email advising MPs to refrain from discussing the issue via email to prevent any escalation. In her email, Shanahan reportedly called on caucus members to share their views during the national caucus meeting instead.

Liberal MP Ken McDonald (Avalon, N.L.) told The Hill Times that the party would have been in a better position if they had held a caucus meeting in June. Had that happened, the current turmoil could have been avoided, he said.

“We might not be in this situation that’s in there,” McDonald told The Hill Times Tuesday, Oct. 21, and called for Trudeau’s leadership review but later recanted his opinion.

“It was [a mistake] because I spoke to several Toronto MPs after that election, and they were somewhat shaken by that loss and thinking that they’re next to lose. So I think the caucus meeting should have been called at that time for Members [MPs] only, and have a conversation and clear the air.”

He declined to say whether he will speak at tomorrow’s caucus meeting, saying he was still undecided.

Liberal MP Ken Hardie (Fleetwood-Port Kells, B.C.) declined to offer his opinion about the group of MPs who want Trudeau to resign. He said that he will share his opinion only in the caucus.

Meanwhile, prior to Tuesday’s cabinet meeting, Trudeau dismissed questions from reporters about his leadership.

In scrums with reporters, Immigration Minister Marc Miller (Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs, Que.) described efforts to oust Trudeau as “garbage.”

“Any minute spent on this garbage is a minute that’s not spent on Pierre Poilievre and what he wants to do to this country, and I think that is very dangerous,” Miller told reporters before the cabinet meeting.

According to an Abacus Data poll data released Oct. 22, 57 per cent of Canadians who live in Liberal-held ridings want Trudeau to resign, and not lead the Liberals in the next election. The poll of 1,500 Canadians was conducted from Oct. 17 to 22.

The press release announcing the poll noted only one in five Canadians, or 21 per cent, want Trudeau to run again, and “almost half want him to resign immediately,” or 47 per cent.

arana@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times

 

Abbas Rana is the assistant deputy editor at The Hill Times. He reports on parliamentary caucuses, nomination contests, party leadership campaigns, Prime Minister’s Office, and cabinet. Rana loves to chat with sources on the record or on a not-for-attribution basis, especially when they have verifiable story tips that could be followed as news stories. Born and raised in Pakistan, Rana speaks Punjabi, Urdu, and Hindi. See all stories BY ABBAS RANA