Good Thursday morning,

In today’s Politics This Morning:

• Carney pledges to save the auto sector.

• Andrew Furey, provincial ministers talk health policy in Ottawa.

• StatsCan reports on migrants coming from the U.S.

2025 really is the year that has it all in Canadian politics: DONALD TRUMP, a federal election campaign, wild swings in the polls, a foreign interference scandal, whatever DANIELLE SMITH is doing on any given day… the works.

Just this week, we’ve seen Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE’s media guy, SEBASTIAN SKAMSKI, trying to discredit CTV and the Globe and Mail, and “hooking up” a far-right social media influencer with front-row press access.

We’ve seen MARK CARNEY get the name of his own (fairly well-known) candidate wrong, and post social media videos about brussels sprouts. 

And we’ve seen the Globe and Mail report that Carney’s Liberal Party barred CHANDRA ARYA from running for re-election because Arya was allegedly too close to the Indian government—paving the way for the party to parachute Carney into the riding to try and win himself a seat.

Yesterday, Trump announced a permanent 25 per cent tariff on auto imports. How destructive that tariff proves to be may hinge on the details: the New York Times reported that the tariff would apply to “finished” cars and trucks, though other reports did not include that word. It’s an important one: the Canada-U.S. auto industry ships car parts and partially-finished vehicles back and forth across the border constantly, so lobbyists and government officials will no doubt be scrambling for clarity on in which circumstances, precisely, the tariffs will apply.

A statement from the White House said that the Trump administration was imposing the auto tariffs because cars and car parts were being imported into the U.S. “in such quantities and under such circumstances as to threaten to impair the national security of the United States”—a justification Trump needs in order to work around Congress and existing law.

Carney told reporters yesterday that he wanted to speak to Trump about the tariff, though he didn’t yet have a call arranged.

He said that retaliatory tariffs might be coming “if it is appropriate,” and that “if” will be settled after a meeting with his ministers, and a closer look at Trump’s executive order.

“We are going to stand up for Canada, we will be united, and we will fight in a unified way,” he said.

This election is being fought over the question of who would best stand up to Trump, and voters are about to get their first real look at how Carney performs in that role, right in the middle of the campaign.

Where the leaders are

Mark Carney has abandoned a plan to hold a campaign event in Quebec City today, and will instead hold a meeting of the Canada-U.S. cabinet committee in Ottawa, Global News’ MACKENZIE GRAY reported last night.

Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE is in British Columbia today. He’s planning to hold a press conference in Coquitlam this morning, and then a rally this evening at an industrial property in Surrey.

Coquitlam is split into two ridings. Liberal RON MCKINNON won one of them, Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam, in the last election, and New Democrat BONITA ZARRILLO won the other, Port Moody-Coquitlum. McKinnon bested Conservative runner up KATERINA ANASTASIADIS by 4,591 votes in that contest, while Zarrillo defeated Conservative candidate NELLY SHIN by 2,762 votes.

The NDP did not share its campaign itinerary for today with the public by deadline yesterday evening.

Election promise tracker

Carney promises all-Canadian auto sector

There’s plenty more for the election promise promise tracker to dig into today.

We’ll start with Mark Carney’s Liberals, who announced yesterday that his government would, if re-elected, “support”, “protect,” and “grow” Canada’s auto manufacturing sector as it stares down an existential threat from U.S. President Donald Trump.

His pledge for government support starts with a $2-billion “strategic response fund” for the auto sector. But the Liberals went further, promising to “build an all-in-Canada auto manufacturing network.” 

That’s a different sort of proposal: rather than a temporary and limited rescue fund, it seems the Liberals are contemplating a permanent subsidy for the industry—using government cash, in one form or another, to pad the bottom line of auto manufacturers until it makes sense for them to keep building cars in Canada, tariffs or not. 

That would be good news for Canadian auto workers, who no doubt want to keep their jobs. It is arguably less good for Canadian taxpayers who don’t get any benefit from subsidizing automakers.

Conservatives court seniors

Moving on. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives made a pitch for the senior vote yesterday—the demographic that has been most staunchly Liberal-leaning through the polling ups and downs of the past two years. The Conservatives promised to make two changes to reward seniors for delaying retirement (don’t tell any job-hunting Zoomers).

First, they would push back the age at which a person must cash in their RRSP, from age 71 to 73. Second, they would increase the basic personal amount—the income on which individuals are exempt from paying tax—for working seniors from roughly $15,000 to about $25,000. 

Keeping your cash away from the government: it’s classic conservative policy, so fair enough. But the Conservatives weren’t the only ones to seize on the basic personal amount, or BPA, yesterday.

NDP, Greens promise tax breaks

The New Democrats also announced a plan yesterday to raise the BPA, and for everyone, not just seniors. They said they would increase it to $19,500. The PBO’s Ready Reckoner tool tells us that boosting the BPA to $18,000—the highest increase the tool will allow—would cost about $7.9-billion, for context. 

The New Democrats also promised yesterday to permanently remove the federal sales tax from items including “grocery store meals, diapers, and strollers” as well as internet, cell phone, and home heating bills.

They pledged to go ahead with the Trudeau-era increase to the capital gains tax—the party estimated that it would bring in $17.4-billion in revenue—to double the Canada Disability Benefit, and to raise—by an unspecified amount—the Guaranteed Income Supplement.

The Canada Disability Benefit currently amounts to up to $200 per month in support for those who qualify.

The Disability Benefit and Guaranteed Income Supplement are benefits targeted to those in need, and as such, increasing them should give taxpayers good bang for their buck. Taking the sales tax off of the aforementioned items, not so much: rich people buy strollers and internet, too. 

Not to be overlooked, the Green Party released its tax plan yesterday, and that included a proposal to increase the BPA all the way up to $40,000. The party estimated that the tax cut would cost $47-billion.

Economist KEVIN MILLIGAN wasn’t impressed with the NDP package. The University of British Columbia professor posted on social media in response: 

“Let me note that the NDP-proposed GST cut sends more dollars to ‘millionaires and billionaires’ than middle-class Canadians. Let me further note that the BPA increase doesn’t benefit the 31 per cent of low-income tax filers who have non-taxable returns. I get it—tax policy is hard. So maybe preen less?”

We followed up with Milligan yesterday. His issue with the BPA increase, he said, was that it wouldn’t help the poorest Canadians, who don’t earn enough to pay any taxes to begin with, and thus won’t benefit from a tax break. 

He compared that benefit to the GST credit, a program through which the government automatically sends quarterly payments to low-income households that have filed taxes. 

He also wondered where the Green Party would find $47-billion to pay for its tax cut. 

Milligan’s big-picture takeaway from yesterday, however, was disappointment that all of the parties seem determined to spend away the government’s bottom line on tax breaks, rather than using it to confront the security and economic challenges that the Trump presidency will impose. He called it a “profound” misdirection of priorities. 

To be fair, Carney’s team could argue that their announcement yesterday was all about tackling the Trump threat. The Liberals have already proposed a multi-billion dollar tax cut, however. 

In the news

Liberals commit to pharmacare: Health Minister KAMAL KHERA has pledged to carry on work towards a more substantive national pharmacare program if the Liberals are returned to power. TESSIE SANCI reports.

A Poilievre pivot?: IREM KOCA speaks to strategists about how the leaders are faring on the campaign trail so far, and whether Pierre Poilievre is sending the right message about Donald Trump. Read all about it here.

Hill Climbers to Hill candidate: LAURA RYCKEWAERT has the breakdown on former Hill staffers who are entering the federal race as political contestants.

What else is happening today?

Three Senators are in Washington, D.C., this week to meet with representatives of the Organization of American States. They are ROSA GALVEZ, SALMA ATAULLAHJAN, and SHARON BUREY.

In Ottawa, the Canadian Medical Association is holding a summit on health at the Rogers Centre. Outgoing Newfoundland and Labrador Premier ANDREW FUREY, Ontario Health Minister SYLVIA JONES, and Manitoba Health Minister UZOMA ASAGWARA will take part in a panel talk this morning on “how U.S. health policy could shake up Canada.” You can find the details here.  

Today’s data

Today Statistics Canada is releasing fresh data on job vacancies, tourism, government finances, and more. You’ll be able to see it here beginning at 8:30 a.m.

Yesterday, StatsCan published a deep dive into the flow of migrants from the United States into Canada since the 1980s. Among other things, it found that the number of new permanent residents coming to Canada from the United States had jumped in the years just before the pandemic, and continued since COVID-19 restrictions were eased between the two countries.

It also found that the share of those migrants who did not hold U.S. citizenship has been rising steadily since about 2012, and ditto for the share of U.S. citizens who had previously held temporary status in Canada. You can check out the report here. 

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