Daily snapshots of the key ridings leaders are targeting on the campaign trail
The leaders of the six federal parties are travelling across the country to canvas swing ridings and strongholds, with some staying closer to home to try and secure personal seats—in the case of the Greens—or a province, with the Bloc Québécois focused on Quebec’s 78 ridings.
Prime Minister Mark Carney, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet, and Green Party co-Leaders Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault are all busy on the campaign trail.
The Politics This Morning team is keeping a close eye of their movements in The Hill Times’ weekday morning newsletter. Here’s that coverage of the key ridings in play:
April 25-27:
The Conservative leader is making a morning policy announcement Saskatoon, Sask., making a “whistle stop” in Calgary, Alta., and then attending a “rally for change” in Nanoose Bay, B.C.
Nanoose Bay falls within the district of Nanaimo in southern Vancouver Island, where the voters are split between the Liberals, NDP, and Conservatives, as per the Vancouver Sun. The location of Poilievre’s rally is a farm in the riding of Courtenay-Alberni. The NDP’s Gord Johns is an incumbent here, and he has held the seat since it was created in 2015.
Johns had won the past elections with a comfortable margin over his Conservative opponent, and he is defending his turf again. The Tories are fielding a business owner and a former coach for a women’s softball team, Kris McNichol in the riding, and as per polling aggregator 338 Canada, he may be on course for victory.
A local paper The Scoop offered all federal election candidates a chance to send a 90-second video clip introducing them and their campaign. All the candidates, including Johns, sent in their videos except McNichol.
The Liberals have Brian Cameron running for the seat, but he appears to have limited odds in this contest. Alberni Valley News has more on the local candidates here.
Poilievre has some more whistle stops and rallies on his schedule for the weekend. On April 26, he has a rally in Richmond, B.C., and then crosses the country for a stop at Falconbridge, Ont., in the evening. On April 27, the Tory leader will attend a rally in Oakville, Ont., before the final campaign stop in his riding of Carleton for a rally.
Carney is planning to spend part of his day on April 25 speaking virtually to First Nations chiefs. He is scheduled to take part in the Assembly of First Nations’ virtual leaders forum, where he will be questioned about issues that matter to Indigenous communities. Poilievre and Singh have already taken their turns.
May, meanwhile, is joining the party candidate for Nanaimo-Ladysmith—former MP Paul Manly— at a press conference on “fighting poverty” in Victoria, B.C. She is also canvassing in Saanich and joining party volunteers for sign waving.
Singh has a packed schedule on April 25, starting with a policy announcement in Toronto, Ont., and attending the 2025 Ontario Public Service Employees Union (OPSEU) Convention in the city. Post that, Singh is appearing at two campaign events in the province, one in Hamilton and the other in London.
April 24:
Carney is visiting Port Moody, B.C., in the morning, and holding a rally in Winnipeg, Man., in the evening. The NDP’s Bonita Zarillo won Port Moody-Coquitlam in 2021 in a three-way race with the Conservatives and Liberals. The Grits won three of four ridings in Winnipeg in the last election.
Poilievre will begin his day with a presser in Halifax, N.S., then fly to Saskatchewan. He’ll hold a rally in Saskatoon this evening. Saskatoon is split into three ridings. Corey Tochor, Kevin Waugh, and Brad Redekopp won them for the Conservatives in the last election, and all three of them are running again. Redekopp was the only one of the three to face a competitive race in 2021, besting an NDP competitor by a little more than 2,000 votes.
Singh is planning to make an announcement in Winnipeg in the morning, then hold a campaign event in Toronto this evening. Leah Gazan is aiming for re-election as the NDP’s candidate in Winnipeg Centre. Singh’s New Democrats are not defending any seats in Toronto.
You’ll also be able to see the federal leaders (sans Blanchet) on the screen in the evening: they will all feature on an episode of This Hour Has 22 Minutes on the CBC, according to a social media post by Mark Critch.
April 23:
Poilievre is beginning his day with a press conference in Hamilton, Ont., then heading east to host a rally in Trenton, N.S., this evening. Trenton lies within Central Nova, a riding that Sean Fraser hopes to reclaim for the Liberal Party in this election. Bryce Jenkins is running for the Conservatives.
Fraser won the riding comfortably in 2021, securing 46 per cent of the vote and besting the Conservative runner-up by more than 5,000 votes. The latest Nanos Research poll put the Liberals 13 points ahead of the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada.
Singh will take his turn today at a virtual forum organized by the Assembly of First Nations, following Poilievre’s appearance on April 22. The AFN invited each of the federal leaders to speak as part of the multi-day forum series. Carney’s participation was “still to be confirmed,” according to the AFN as of April 23. Carney’s campaign did not respond on April 22 when asked by The Hill Times whether he planned to take part.
April 22:
Carney is touring Quebec, starting in Quebec City, then off to speaking in Trois-Rivières, Shefford, Saint Bruno, before finishing with a rally in Laval.
Fayçal El-Khoury easily won Laval—Les Îles for the Liberals in the last election, securing 49 per cent of the vote. He is running for re-election.
Poilievre is doing a press conference in Woodbridge, Ont., this morning where he released the party’s costed platform, and has a “Canada First” rally in Vaughan, Ont., in the evening. The location for the rally listed on the party’s website suggests it falls in the riding of Vaughan-Woodbridge, which was until recently held by Francesco Sorbara for the Liberals.
In the 2021 election, Sorbara won the seat by narrowly defeating his Conservative rival, after first gaining victory over a Conservative incumbent in 2015.
Sorbara, a former financial analyst, is running again this year and will face Michael Guglielmin from the Tory party. Guglielmin is a former vice-president for a metal services firm, and has Italian roots. As per polling aggregator 338Canada, the riding is marked us “LPC leaning,” meaning Sorbara may not have it easy this year.
The NDP is fielding a former Transport Canada staffer, Ali Bahman, in the riding.
Singh has a packed schedule, too. First, he is announcing new policies in Vancouver, B.C. and attending a campaign event in Burnaby, B.C. soon after. From there, Singh is heading to Edmonton, Alta., where he will appear at an event with former Alberta premier Rachel Notley.
April 16:
The federal party leaders will go head-to-head in a televised, French-language debate in Montreal, with an English-language debate to follow on April 17.
April 15:
Carney is in Saint-Eustache, Que., where he’s expected to make an announcement. Saint-Eustache is a suburb of Montreal, just off the island. It is split into two ridings: Mirabel, which was won by the Bloc Québécois in 2021, and Rivière-des-Mille-Îles, which was also won by the Bloc in the last election.
Poilievre will remain in Montreal for the second day in a row, kicking off the day with his morning press conference. He and the other leaders are likely to stick around for at least a couple of more days, with the French and English leaders’ debates scheduled to take place on April 16 and 17, respectively.
Poilievre has held fundraisers and even rallies in Montreal before, so there are conservatives to be found in the city—but they are few and far between.
The Liberals won all but two seats on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and those two were won by a New Democrat and a Bloc Québécois candidate. The Bloc and the Liberals swept up the ridings in the surrounding suburbs and countryside as well. The latest polling by Nanos Research shows the Liberals capturing almost as much public support in Quebec as the Bloc and Conservatives combined.
Singh is also will also be in Montreal. That Nanos poll suggests the NDP is a distant fourth in the province when it comes to public support, with just five per cent. The party is defending a single seat in Montreal: Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, which has been represented by Alexandre Boulerice since 2011.
Boulerice won the seat easily in 2021 with 49 per cent of the vote.
April 14:
Poilievre is in Montreal, Que., where he will hold a morning press conference, but there are no rallies on the party’s schedule. The Liberals are dominating in Quebec overall in the polls currently, so Poilievre may not be able to pull his big crowds here.
Carney is also campaigning in Dorval and will announce new election pledges in the morning. The city falls under the Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle riding of Montreal, where the Liberals’ Anju Dhillon has been an incumbent since 2015. It is a safe Liberal seat, and Dhillon is running again this year.
Singh has a packed morning schedule, with media interviews lined up in Toronto, Ont., including with CTV’s Your Morning, and an appearance on Breakfast Television. After, he is joining the party’s candidate for Toronto-Danforth, Clare Hacksel, in making a policy announcement. The seat was until recently held by Julie Dabrusin for the Liberals. Dabrusin flipped the historically NDP riding in 2015, beating Craig Scott narrowly that year. She is running to defend her turf, and as per polling aggregator 338 Canada currently is likely to win. Hacksel is a midwife, and a former director of community health services for Planned Parenthood Toronto.
The Green’s Pedneault is speaking about tackling climate change at the party’s presser in Montreal.
April 11:
Poilievre is back in Ontario, first in St. Catharines—a riding where the Liberals’ Chris Bittle is an incumbent after bagging the seat from the Conservatives in 2015. In 2021, Bittle won by a narrow margin over his Tory opponent, and this year he may have a harder fight as the region has gained some extra territory and lost some old, in the boundary redistribution.
Bittle is pitted against the Tory candidate Bas Sluijmers, a former campaign manager for Gerrit Van Dorland, who was blocked from running in the 2023 Oxford by-election by the party. The anti-abortion group Right Now claimed that it was due to Van Dorland’s anti-abortion views.
At the time Sluijmers told the CBC that he was “very disappointed” with the party’s decision, and that his campaign will be appealing it to the party’s national council.
Sluijmers has also been endorsed by Conservative incumbent Dean Allison, who opposes abortion, as per a list put together by the Abortion Rights Coalition of Canada. For the record, about 54 Conservative candidates this year have been endorsed by the VoteProLife movement, which includes some incumbents and new candidates.
A former Conservative MP has claimed that anti-abortion activists have a growing influence within the party. However, Poilievre has gone on the record to say that he will not change the current abortion laws.
Bittle remains a pro-choice supporter, according to a recent survey by the VoteProLife website, which is backed by the Campaign Life Coalition.
From St. Catharines, Poilievre is heading to his Canada First rally in Windsor, Ont., which is vulnerable to U.S. President Donald Trump’s auto tariffs. The location is a warehouse that falls under the Windsor West riding. Brian Masse of the NDP has held the seat since 2002, and the Liberals were second in the race in the last three elections.
Masse is running again this year, and according to 338 Canada, the seat is a toss up between the Liberals and NDP. The Tories may have a slim chance of gaining ground here.
Masse will be facing a federal crown prosecutor, Richard Pollock, who is running for the Liberals. The Conservatives are fielding an ex-police officer Harb Gill in the riding.
Singh is a headliner, speaking at the Broadbent Institute Progress Summit in Ottawa. Today’s agenda for the left-wing summit features a lengthy session on child care, and panel talks on Canadian attitudes toward immigration, progressive social media, and a “fireside chat” with Singh, who is expected to address reporters at the conference.
The Liberal leader is taking a break from his campaigning and returning to the capital to take stock of the volatile tariff situation. He will convene a meeting of the cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations and national security, according to the PMO.
While Canada does not currently have the 10 per cent reciprocal tariff levied against it, there are still three other tariffs in place: the 25 per cent fentanyl tariff on all non-CUSMA compliant goods, the 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminum, and 25 per cent tariff on the auto sector.
May will attend a fundraising event for a candidate running in the Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke riding in B.C., while her co-Leader Pedneault will remain in the riding of Outremont in Montreal that he hopes to win.
Blanchet is headed to Verdun, where he’ll have public events there, and in Dorval, and Trois-Rivières.
April 10:
Carney is planning a morning press conference in Brampton, Ont., before meeting with supporters in Hamilton in the afternoon. The Liberals won all five Brampton ridings in the last election, and three of four in Hamilton. The Conservatives must believe they have a shot at winning something in Brampton, however, as they sent their leader to the city the day before.
Poilievre is maintaining his schedule of a press conference in the morning and a campaign event in the evening, first with an announcement in Milton, Ont., and later in a rally in Woolwich, Ont.
The riding of Milton was until recently held by Olympian Adam van Koeverden for the Liberals, who first flipped it for the party in the 2019 election. This year, Milton has been split into two ridings: Burlington North-Milton West and Milton East-Halton Hills South. Van Koeverden is running in the first one, where he will face his Conservative opponent from 2021, Nadeem Akbar. Akbar is an IT consultant, endorsed by Milton’s Mayor Gordon Krantz this year. As per polling aggregator 338 Canada, van Koeverden may repeat his win over Akbar again.
In the new Milton East-Halton Hills South riding, the Liberals have pitted town councillor and lawyer Kristina Tesser Derksen against the Conservatives’ Parm Gill. He is a former MP and MLA, who represented the federal riding of Brampton—Springdale in Parliament from 2011 to 2015.
As an MLA under Ontario Premier Doug Ford, Gill was made a cabinet minister for citizenship and red tape reduction. He is back in the federal Conservative camp, but the seat is still, for now, expected to be won by a Liberal, as per current forecasts by 338 Canada.
Now onto Poilievre’s next city in focus: Woolwich, a township just on the edge of Kitchener. The rally will be held at the facilities of an aerospace business that falls within the riding of Kitchener-Conestoga, where Liberal MP Tim Louis is the incumbent.
Louis, a jazz singer and pianist, was elected to the seat in 2019 when he snatched it from former Conservative MP Harold Albrecht by a very tight margin. In the 2021 general election, too, Louis eked out a narrow victory against the Conservative candidate, and this year he is pitted against businessman Doug Treleaven, the founder of a fraud prevention tech company, and a member of the board of governors at Wilfrid Laurier University.
May is on a train from Montreal, Que., to Moncton, N.B., and will be making public appearances at stops along the way. She’ll move on to Fredericton in the afternoon, and then hold an evening rally and fundraiser in the city. Co-Leader Pedneault has a press conference in Montreal on his schedule, to talk about “key foreign affairs challenges.”
The NDP leader, meanwhile, is staying in Saskatoon, Sask., where he was the day before. He’ll start with a morning policy announcement, then head to a meeting with the Federation of Sovereign Indigenous Nations.
April 9:
Poilievre starts off with a press conference in Sault Ste. Marie, Ont., following his rally in the city the night before. From there, Poilievre will go to a “stop the crime” evening rally in Brampton, Ont. The location is a fancy banquet hall in the Brampton East riding, according to the party’s website.
The Liberal Party’s Maninder Sidhu has held the seat since 2019. About 70 per cent of the people in the riding identify as South Asian, as per the 2021 census.
Poilievre may find a receptive audience for his message of being tough on crime. As poll by the Insurance Bureau of Canada found that in 2023 nearly 80 per cent of residents in Brampton were of the view that they had a car theft crisis in their communities, with number of theft claims in the city rising by 133 per cent between 2018 and 2022.
The Tories are fielding media personality and businessman Bob Dosanjh Singh.
Singh ran in the City of Brampton’s mayoral election in 2022, and lost to Patrick Brown. Interestingly, reporting by a now-defunct media outlet for immigrants called New Canadian Media revealed Singh’s nomination in the Conservative Party’s 2019 election for the Mississauga-Malton riding didn’t go too far, even after he signed up several members for his campaign.
According to 338 Canada, Brampton East is a safe Liberal seat, so Singh may have a tough fight to gain some ground.
Carney’s campaign kicks off the day in Calgary, where he’ll make an announcement in the morning and then meet with party volunteers in the city, before heading east to Saskatoon.
In Saskatchewan’s biggest city, Carney will meet with community members and speak alongside local candidates, which could include Greg Poelzer, running in Saskatoon-University, Chad Eggerman, running in Saskatoon West, and Rokhan Sarwar,running in Saskatoon South.
The NDP leader is also headed to Saskatoon, but begins his day in Vancouver, B.C., where he will make an announcement, and then speak at a First Nations summit in the city. Singh’s “meet and greet” with supporters includes three of the party’s Saskatoon candidates—Rachel Walker, Melissa McGillivray, and Jacob Gadzella—as well as Prince Albert contender Virginia Kutzan.
Both of these regions are dominated by Conservative voters, but the NDP has consistently stood second in the race ahead of the Liberals. 338 Canada projects the Conservatives will win 13 out of the 14 seats in the province, with the Liberals possibly capturing one.
The Green Party co-leaders will be doing media interviews in Ottawa for most of the day today, as per their itinerary. May is headed to Moncton, N.B., in the evening via train from Montreal.
April 8:
Poilievre remains in Edmonton, Alta., after the previous night’s rally featuring an introduction by former prime minister Stephen Harper. After, he heads east to Sault Ste. Marie, Ont., for another evening event. The city is famously part of the steel belt—and the site of Algoma Steel’s factory—which has been hit by Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum.
This election the riding includes some rural parts of Algoma district, and has been renamed as Sault Ste. Marie-Algoma.
Liberal MP Terry Sheehan has held the Sault Ste. Marie seat since 2015, narrowly beating his Conservative opponent in 2021. With the new boundaries in place, Sheehan has the challenge of defending his turf against former chief of police Hugh Stevenson, who is running for the Tories. Polling aggregator 338 Canada predicts that Stevenson will win the seat.
Singh has a press conference in Vancouver, B.C., and later plans to visit a picket line for striking lab workers in the city. In the evening, he has meeting on the books with Grand Chief Stewart Phillip, the president of the Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs.
May will launch the Green Party’s health platform in a press conference in Guelph, Ont., then canvas with local volunteers before moving on to do the same in Spadina-Harbourfront, in Toronto. Guelph was last won by Liberal Lloyd Longfield, who is not running for re-election.
Spadina-Harbourfront is a reconfiguration of the riding Spadina-Fort York. It was last won by Kevin Vuong, who ran as a Liberal in the last election but was dropped by the party two days before the election, and sat as an independent. Vuong is not seeking re-election.
April 7:
Carney and Poilievre are both holding court in Western Canada. The Liberal leader is in B.C. all day, including an announcement in Victoria, B.C., meeting with Premier David Eby, and holding an evening rally in Richmond.
Poilievre remains determined to regain his lost polling fortunes, and has two events lined up today.
Poilievre starts off in Northern B.C., with a press conference in Terrace, B.C., before heading to his party’s stronghold in Alberta, where he will appear at an evening Canada First rally in Edmonton.
Terrace falls under the riding of Skeena-Bulkley Valley, where the NDP’s Taylor Bachrach has been the incumbent since 2019. The party has held fort there since 2004, with the Conservatives often finishing in second place over the years, and the Liberals third. In the 2021 election, Bachrach won 43 per cent of the vote and the Conservatives secured 36 per cent. Poilievre could hope to bridge this gap with Conservative candidate Ellis Ross— a former B.C. MLA who ran for the B.C. Liberals (currently B.C. United) in the 2017 and 2020 provincial elections and won against his NDP opponents.
Ross briefly served as a minister in former B.C. premier Christy Clark’s cabinet. 338 Canada forecasts a CPC win in this riding, meaning Bachrach has his work cut out for him. The Liberals are running a Terrace city councillor, Inderpal Dhillon, in the contest for the seat this year.
As per the party website, Poilievre’s rally in Edmonton appears to be on the site of a wheel and tire retailer— a conscious choice perhaps amid the auto-industry tariffs. The location falls in the new riding of Edmonton Gateway, which has been created by merging two Conservative ridings, Edmonton Mill Woods and Edmonton-Westaskiwin, and includes some territory from Edmonton Riverbend.
The Conservative candidate for Edmonton Gateway is former Edmonton Mill Woods incumbent Tim Uppal. Uppal is up against Jeremy Hoefsloot of the Liberal Party. Hoefsloot is a lawyer and a former chairperson of the Liberal Party’s youth wing in Alberta.
The NDP and Greens are in central Canada, with Singh is back in Toronto, Ont., while the Green’s Pedneault is door-knocking in his riding of Outremont, Que., and May is canvassing in Guelph, Ont., followed by a community event in the region with candidate Anne-Marie Zajdlik.
April 4:
The Conservatives are in Trois-Rivières, Que., which the party lost by a very slim margin last election, and are running the same candidate this time around. Poilievre has a morning press conference in the city with CPC candidate Yves Lévesque, who was the city’s mayor from 2001 to 2018.
The seat is now occupied by incumbent Bloc Québécois René Villemure, who has held the seat since 2021. Villemure is also be facing stiff competition from the Liberals, will have Caroline Desrochers on the ballot. Desrochers is a former Global Affairs Canada staffer, and worked at Canada’s consulate general in New York before. In 2021, she was the Liberal candidate for Quebec’s La Prairie riding, but lost to the Bloc that year.
Polling aggregator 338 Canada is currently predicting a tight race between the Liberals and the Conservatives in Trois-Rivières.
Carney has a packed April 4 schedule. First, he is speaking in Montreal, then touring an auto factory in Woodbridge, Ont., and ending the day at a rally in Scarborough, Ont.
Singh is in Quebec, with a party proposals presser first up in Verdun, before he closes the day visiting a local business in Montreal.
Pedneault and May are both starting their days in their respective ridings—Saanich-Gulf Islands, B.C., and Outremont, Que. May also has a stop at a fundraising event in Comox to promote the party’s North Island-Powell River candidate, Jessica Wegg.
April 3:
Carney is in Ottawa for a First Ministers’ meeting to discuss Trump’s latest moves. The president slapped a 25 per cent tariff on all foreign-made cars going into the U.S., including those made in Canada, and also announced worldwide reciprocal tariffs, which Canada is exempt from. All previously announced levies also remain in effect.
Singh is also in Ottawa to start his day and then he’s off to Montreal to take part in the live Radio Canada program Cinq Chefs, une Élection. According to Radio Canada, the leaders of all five major parties will be participating in the live election program this evening.
Poilievre has a morning press conference in Kingston, Ont., and an evening Canada First rally in Oshawa, Ont The city’s riding has long been a Conservative seat, with Colin Carrie dominating the election results since 2008. The NDP was the runner up in Oshawa in the 2021 general election, and the Liberals finished third.
However, Carrie announced last April that he is not running this time, and the Conservatives have replaced him with Rhonda Kirkland as their candidate. Kirkland was a staffer in Carrie’s office until recently, and is a certified educational therapist.
She was endorsed by former Conservative cabinet minister Peter MacKay in a video posted on X. He called her an “outstanding community volunteer.”
The Liberals have fielded Isaac Ransom against her in the riding. Ransom most recently worked as the head of corporate affairs for e-bike and scooter provider Neuron Mobility. He previously served as a staffer to the late Toronto mayor Rob Ford, and as a constituency assistant to former Liberal minister Scott Brison, according to reporting from The Globe and Mail.
The NDP’s candidate in Oshawa is Sara Labelle, who is a medical lab technologist and an advocate for workers’ rights, as per the Durham Region Labour Council.
Polling aggregator 338 Canada has projected Oshawa to be a seat that will likely be won by the Conservatives again.
April 2:
Carney paused his election campaign and returned to Ottawa last night ahead of Trump’s announcement of so-called “reciprocal” tariffs
Poilievre is also back in Ontario, where he is first speaking in Toronto in the morning followed by an evening “Canada First” rallies in Kingston, Ont. The city falls under the federal riding of Kingston and the Islands, which has long been a Liberal stronghold. Mark Gerretsen has held the seat for the Liberals since 2015, and he is running again this year.
In the 2021 election, the NDP was the runner up in the riding, and the Conservatives finished third. Polling aggregator 338 Canada has marked it as a safe seat for the Liberals this year.
Gerretsen may not have it easy this time, however, as the Conservatives have pitted a three-term mayor for the city of Kingston, Bryan Paterson, against him.
A glance through Paterson’s X page suggests he sees affordability and public safety among the main concerns for his riding. Then there is also a post, supposedly by his team, calling him the “best economist/politician” born on his March 16 birthday.
Paterson, as per the City of Kingston website, is “taking an unpaid leave of absence” while he is campaigning for the federal election.
Gerretsen, too, for the record, was the mayor of Kingston before becoming the MP. The NDP has named Daria Juüdi-Hope as its flag bearer this year. Juüdi-Hope is a registered nurse and health-care advocate, as per her LinkedIn page, and university council member at Queen’s University.
Singh is in Winnipeg, Man., with a morning announcement alongside Leila Dance, the NDP incumbent running in Elmwood—Transcona. In the afternoon, Singh heads to a picket line in the city.
Blanchet has public events in Gaspésie and Quebec City on his schedule, while the Green co-leaders are campaigning for their seats in their respective ridings.
April 1:
Carney is headed to Winnipeg, Man., beginning with a morning announcement, followed by a lunch with members of the local Filipino community. Carney is scheduled to meet Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew, and hold an evening rally.
Poilievre is focused on Atlantic Canada, starting with a morning presser in St. John’s, N.L., and an evening rally at an industrial facility in Prince Edward Island.
St. John’s is split between two ridings: St. John’s East, and Cape Spear. The ridings have been renamed and reconfigured following the latest boundaries adjustment, but that probably doesn’t change the political calculus much for Poilievre: the Liberals won both of those ridings in the last election, and Conservative candidates finished behind the New Democrat runners-up in each.
The prospects in Prince Edward Island are better, though only slightly. The Liberals won all four ridings in the province in the last election, including Malpeque, where Poilievre is hosting his rally. The Conservatives finished within 2,000 votes of winner Heath MacDonald in 2021. Jamie Fox is carrying the banner for the Tories in the riding this time around.
Singh, meanwhile is focused on Edmonton, Alta., starting with a morning announcement with NDP Edmonton Centre candidate Trisha Estabrooks. Later in the day, In the afternoon, he’ll be meeting residents in Edmonton Strathcona with candidate and incumbent Heather McPherson. Polling aggregator 338 Canada is projecting Edmonton Strathcona as a likely NDP seat once again, as of March 31.
McPherson won Edmonton Strathcona in 2019, and again by a landslide in 2021. Edmonton Centre was a tight, three-way race in the last election, and the winner—Liberal Randy Boissonnault—isn’t running for re-election.
March 31:
In New Brunswick, Poilievre continued his tour of the ridings that his party can hope to snatch, with a first appearance scheduled at a “message event” in Saint John. The city fell under the Saint John—Rothesay riding before the redistribution of boundaries in 2023, with Liberal candidate Wayne Long representing it since 2015.
Long, for the record, was among the first Liberal MPs who openly spoke out against Trudeau last summer and asked him to step down. He echoed his voters’ call for a change in the country’s direction—a vulnerability that the Tories can hope to cash in on.
Under the new map, the Saint John region now falls under two electoral districts: Saint John-Kennebecasis and Saint John-St. Croix.
The latter includes some areas that earlier fell under the riding of New Brunswick Southwest, which the Conservative incumbent John Williamson has held since 2019.
Long is the Liberal candidate for Saint John—Kennebecasis, while the Conservatives have named Melissa Young as their flag bearer. Young is the former CEO of Skilled Trades Ontario, and was hailed by the Motor Vehicle Retailers of Ontario for “driving major change.” Her nomination, however, created a bit of a stir in the party, and riding president Leslie Keirstead told CBC News that the party’s process to select the candidate “lacked transparency”.
Two other candidates were already campaigning for months with the hopes of being picked to run for the Conservatives there, as per CBC.
As for Saint John—St. Croix, the Liberals have Karen Ludwig fighting to repeat her 2015 win, when she turned what had been a Conservative riding red. Williamson, however, took it back for the Conservatives in 2019. Ludwig was part of Canada’s delegation to Washington, D.C., in November 2017, during the negotiations for a renewed North American free trade agreement, and that experience could be one her selling points in this election.
Poilievre has a Canada First rally in Fredericton, N.B., on his plate in the evening. Jenica Atwin, a former Green Party member, held the seat for the Liberals until recently, but she is not running in this election.
After the border redistribution, Fredericton now falls under a new riding: Fredericton-Oromocto. Two-time Juno Award-winning singer-songwriter David Myles will be running for the Liberals in place of Atwin, while the Conservatives have a former New Brunswick MLA Brian Macdonald as their candidate. Fredericton has been a Liberal riding since 1997, with the exception of 2008 to 2015, when it was held by the Conservatives.
New Brunswick is also among the provinces where poling aggregator 338 Canada projects the Liberals to pick up the most seats.
The Greens’ Pedneault, meanswhile, flew north to Whitehorse, Yukon, campaigning for candidate Gabrielle Dupont, an artist, and an environmentalist. The territory’s sole seat has been held by the Liberals since 2015.
March 28:
Poilievre made stops in Nanaimo to help his party gain more ground in British Columbia.
The NDP’s Lisa Marie Barron snatched the riding of Nanaimo-Ladysmith in 2021 from the Greens’ Paul Manly, winning 29 per cent of the votes. The Tories came second in the race with 26 per cent, and it could be a seat that Poilievre hopes to flip in his favour.
The Conservatives are fielding their 2021 candidate Tamara Kronis in the riding again. Kronis, as per her LinkedIn page, is a lawyer and a former chair of the Ontario Human Rights Tribunal.
But the Greens are fighting back to regain their territory, too. May and Pedneault were also in the region to boost Manly’s campaign. Manly, a former MP, worked as a city councillor in Nanaimo from November 2022.
The Liberals have Michelle Corfield as their flag bearer. This is the third such contest for the businesswoman and advocate for First Nations’ rights.
March 27:
Carney abandoned a plan to hold a campaign event in Quebec City on March 27, and instead held a meeting of the Canada-U.S. cabinet committee in Ottawa.
Poilievre was in British Columbia, with a press conference in Coquitlam on his planner, followed by an evening rally at an industrial property in Surrey.
Coquitlam is split into two ridings. Liberal Ron McKinnon won one of them—Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam—in the last election, and New Democrat Bonita Zarrillo won the other—Port Moody-Coquitlum. McKinnon bested the Conservative runner up by 4,591 votes in that contest, while Zarrillo defeated the Conservative incumbent by 2,762 votes.
March 26:
Carney was in Southwestern Ontario on March 26, making stops in Windsor, London, and Kitchener.
Poilievre’s team was on the road in Quebec, starting with a photo op for the “unveiling” of their campaign plane in Hamilton. Then, it was off to Quebec City, where Poilievre held a rally. Last stop, Montmagny, a town about an hour’s drive to the east, where he held a press conference.
Poilievre’s Conservatives have a Quebec problem on their hands—or, to be more precise, a Bloc Québécois problem in Quebec. A pair of polls by Leger illustrate the situation. In December, the Conservatives were polling with 26 per cent support in Quebec, while the Bloc Québécois led with 39 per cent support, and the Liberals (under then-prime minister Justin Trudeau) trailed with 20 per cent. Earlier in the week before Poilievre’s visit, Conservative support was within the same ballpark—23 per cent—but Bloc support had cratered to 23 per cent, while the Carney Liberals were riding high at 41 per cent.
That means that the Liberals are on track to pick up more new seats in Quebec than are the Conservatives. As of March 25, polling aggregator 338 Canada was projecting that the Liberals were on pace to get 40 seats in Quebec (up from 33 in the last Parliament) while the Conservatives were looking at 13 seats (up from nine) and the Bloc was projected to get just 24 seats (down from 33). Those polls and projections could well change significantly by the time voters head to the polls.
Complicating matters somewhat is the fact that, where it doesn’t win, the Bloc tends to be the top competitor to the Liberals and Conservatives in the Quebec ridings where they have success.
The Conservatives would probably have more to gain than to lose from a Bloc resurgence. The Bloc was runner up in eight of the nine ridings won by Conservative candidates in the last election, but it was a very distant runner-up in all but one: Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, where Conservative Richard Martel bested Bloc candidate Julie Bouchard by 3,195 votes.
The ninth riding, by the way, was Beauce, where People’s Party of Canada Leader (and former Conservative) Maxime Bernier finished a second to Conservative Richard Lehoux by more than 17,000 votes.
Singh started his day in Hamilton, Ont., with local NDP candidate Monique Taylor at the Sackville Hill Seniors Recreation Centre. The day also included a stop in London Centre, where was joined by local NDP candidates at the NDP’s London Centre campaign office.
May was focused on her seat in B.C., was Pedneault on the other end of the country in Quebec.
March 25:
Carney has moved from Newfoundland to Nova Scotia, where he held public events in three different communities: Halifax, Dartmouth, and Elmsdale.
Carney has led a big Liberal turnaround in the polls, and that’s more apparent in Atlantic Canada than anywhere else. A few months ago, the Conservatives looked poised to scoop up a significant share of the Liberal seats in the region. Now? Not so much.
Halifax is split into two ridings: Halifax, which was until recently represented by Liberal Andy Filmore, and Halifax West, which Liberal Lena Diab likewise won in the last election. Dartmouth is part of the Dartmouth-Cole Harbour riding, which was won in the last election by Liberal Darren Fisher. Elmsdale is split between two ridings: Central Nova and Kings Hants, which were won in the last election by Liberals Sean Fraser and Kody Blois, respectively.
Poilievre, meanwhile, held a press conference in Vaughan-Woodbridge, a riding that Liberal Francesco Sorbara has represented since 2015. Sorabara garnered 46 per cent of the votes cast in that riding in the 2021 election, edging out the Conservative candidate by six percentage points—a small enough margin to put it back in the Conservatives crosshairs to flip. Michael Guglielmin is running under the Tory banner in the riding this time.
Vaughan is part of the Greater Toronto Area, and is split into two ridings. The other one, King-Vaughan, was won in 2021 by Conservative Anna Roberts, who bested the Liberal incumbent at the time, Deb Schulte, by just more than 1,000 votes, or two points.
Singh made a handful of public appearances in Toronto during the day, before moving on to boost the party’s candidate in Hamilton Mountain, Monique Taylor. Liberal Lisa Hepfner captured that riding in the last election.
The Green Party co-leaders campaigned in their respective homes to kick things off, with May in Saanich-Gulf Islands and Pedneault drumming up support in Outremont, Que., where he is running for election.
March 24:
The day after the election call saw the leaders spanning out, with Carney holding an election rally in St. John’s, N.L., on one coast, and May campaigning in her riding of Saanich Gulf Islands on the other coast in British Columbia.
Poilievre focused on Ontario stops, holding a press conference in Brampton, and a stop in Mississauga East—Cooksville. May’s co-leader Pedneault took a page out of her book to campaign in the riding he’s contesting: Outremont, Que.
Version of these itineraries first appeared in Politics This Morning, your go-to source for insider news, analysis, and updates on where all the key political players are that day. Get more insider coverage directly to your inbox from The Hill Times‘ editor Peter Mazereeuw and reporter Riddhi Kachhela in this subscriber-only daily newsletter. Sign up here.
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