Coming byelections in at least three safe Liberal ridings will mark first test of Carney government’s popularity, say political players
With at least three safe Liberal ridings expected to open soon, any byelections after this fall’s “austerity budget” will serve as the earliest measure of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s standing with voters, say political players.
“If we think back to it, where did Justin Trudeau’s situation really start [to take a serious threat] when he lost the Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection?” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, in an interview with The Hill Times.
“So, a safe Liberal seat, that goes another way. And the Conservatives have shown an ability to really organize well in byelections. And the NDP typically organized pretty well in by elections, too, although they’re in such disarray at the moment, I don’t know that they would be a threat.”
Former transport and internal trade minister Chrystia Freeland (University-Rosedale, Ont.) resigned from cabinet two weeks ago to become Canada’s special representative for the reconstruction of Ukraine. She said that she would not seek re-election next time around. While she will remain an MP for now, it’s expected that the former cabinet minister may resign her seat in the coming months, according to Liberal insiders.
Government sources have told The Hill Times that former cabinet ministers Bill Blair (Scarborough Southwest, Ont.) and Jonathan Wilkinson (North Vancouver-Capilano, B.C.) will also resign from their House seats and are expected to be appointed to senior diplomatic posts in Europe. Blair could be appointed as Canada’s high commissioner in the United Kingdom, replacing Ralph Goodale, and Wilkinson to the European Union in Belgium.
Blair, a former Toronto Police chief, was first elected to the House in 2015 and has been re-elected in all three subsequent elections. He won his Scarborough Southwest, Ont., seat by 31-point margin in the last election. Wilkinson, who has also been in Parliament since 2015, carried his North Vancouver-Capilano, B.C., seat in the April 28 election with a 26 per cent margin.
Between 2018 and 2025, Blair served in several senior cabinet positions, including Border Security, Public Safety, King’s Privy Council, and National Defence. Similarly, Wilkinson also held senior cabinet portfolios, including Fisheries, Environment, and Natural Resources.
The list of potential vacancies could grow further in the coming months: Nathaniel Erskine-Smith (Beaches–East York, Ont.) may try again for the Ontario Liberal leadership after failing in 2023, while Yvan Baker (Etobicoke Centre, Ont.) has also said publicly that he’s considering a run at the provincial Liberal leadership.
Bricker said that the ridings of University-Rosedale, Scarborough Southwest and North Vancouver-Capilano are considered some of the safest Liberal ridings, but the outcome could shift depending on the political climate when the byelections are called. Local issues, as well as the Middle East conflict such as Gaza, could shape the political agenda in some or all of these ridings.
Bricker said that the Liberals should use these future byelections to bring in young talent and strengthen their benches. However, he cautioned that losing even one of these seats would spark headlines questioning the party’s momentum. He said that any surprise in the byelections would likely come from local issues, with voters potentially using them as a way to send a message to the Liberals, knowing that it would not alter the government’s standing in a significant way.
“If people don’t feel that these are elections of consequence, then the likelihood that voter turnout is really low is strong, particularly if they expect that it’s not going to change anything,” said Bricker. “And when turnout gets really low as when, as when weird things happen.”
Greg Lyle, president of Innovative Research, said that one of the biggest risks for the government is that the byelections would take place after the Nov. 4 budget, which is expected to include major cuts and a large deficit. He added that Vancouver North–Capilano is not as safe as it seems, explaining the riding’s demographics could easily shift to the Conservatives. Lyle pointed out that this is one of about 30 ridings nationally that the Conservatives had once held by 10-to-20-point margin before flipping Liberal in 2015. In the last election, seats like Vancouver North-Capilano trended Conservative until the final month, but ultimately remained Liberal because of the Donald Trump factor.
“So frankly, if you’re in the PMO, and you look at that seat and you’re trying to manage the external environment, what you’d probably want to do is make sure that you’ve got some news about Trump in the lead up to the vote, just to make sure that seat stays solid, but it’s not a given [the Liberals will automatically win],” said Lyle.
“So I’d be a bit more nervous about that.”
Since Freeland stepped down from cabinet earlier this month, and with speculation about at least two other ridings opening up, several potential candidates have emerged to succeed her. Last week, a Liberal source told The Hill Times that Dr. Andrew Boozary —a Toronto-based physician with a master’s in science from Harvard University and another in public policy from Princeton University—is seriously considering seeking the Liberal nomination in University–Rosedale. His name is also being floated as a possible contender for the provincial Ontario leadership.
In the last election, the federal Liberal platform highlighted Boozary’s “Dunn House,” a social medicine housing initiative that provides affordable housing and on-site health care. The son of Iranian refugees, Boozary grew up in social housing in St. James Town, “one of 13 economically deprived neighbourhoods within the city” of Toronto.
“Invest in deeply affordable housing, supportive housing, and shelters in recognition of the link between housing and mental health outcomes. We will do this through $6-billion invested in the new Build Canada Homes (BCH) which will build and acquire housing,” stated the 2025 election platform.
“This investment builds on the Rapid Housing Initiative which supported 15,000 homes for our most vulnerable, including projects like Dunn House in Toronto, Canada’s first-ever social medicine supportive housing initiative. We will continue to work with partners to deliver projects that recognize the link between housing and health outcomes.”
Liberal Hill staffer Arshia Radmard confirmed last week that he will seek the Liberal nomination once it opens. He currently works for first-term Liberal MP Zoe Royer (Port Moody–Coquitlam, B.C.). At 22 years old, Radmard said that he is from the riding and understands its local dynamics. He pointed out that about 38 per cent of the population is under 35, and said his own experience helps him relate to issues like unemployment and housing affordability.
“We don’t have enough youth voices in the House of Commons,” said Radmard. “We have four, we currently have four fantastic young MPs in the Liberal caucus, but we want more. We want more voices. It’s problems that are facing us, and let’s have youth be the ones who are standing up, fighting for [these issues].”
Radmard said he has been active as a young Liberal in his riding and was the president of young Liberals at the University of Toronto. He previously volunteered in Freeland’s constituency office, and served as the Ontario youth chair for Carney’s campaign during the recent Liberal leadership race.
In addition to these two, Liberal sources say former Toronto MP Marco Mendicino and investment banker Mark Wiseman, a prominent business executive, could also seek the Liberal nomination in this riding. More prominent Liberals are expected to seek the governing party’s nomination once these three or other ridings open up. A lot also depends on whether the party will allow an open nomination process—or bypass it by appointing star candidates.
For Scarborough Southwest, there has been speculation that the Liberals might attempt to recruit provincial NDP MPP and Deputy Leader Doly Begum from the same riding to run federally under the red banner. Others suggested the federal NDP could try to convince her to run as their candidate instead. An NDP spokesperson, however, denied the speculation last week.
“Doly is the deputy leader of the Official Opposition/Ontario NDP and committed to proudly serving the people of Scarborough Southwest at Queen’s Park as their MPP,” wrote Mayeesha Chowdhury, a spokesperson for the Ontario NDP, in a text message to The Hill Times.
“There’s no truth to the rumours about her seeking a federal seat.”
arana@hilltimes.com
The Hill Times
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