TORONTO—Canadians excel at virtue signalling. It is a form of performance art, and is inevitably theatrical as it is conducted in public. Much of it falls flat. Does Canada’s recognition of a Palestinian state qualify? 

Along with about 150 other countries, Canada has now recognized an entity without borders, capital city, or a functioning unitary government. The United Nations granted Palestine observer status over a decade ago, but to no effect on the ground. Canada contends that changing its long-standing policy vis-à-vis the Israel/Palestine conundrum may make a difference. We shall see. 

Canada’s new position is consistent with the hopeful, boy-scout outlook it adopted in the immediate aftermath of the Second World War. At that time, it was an international player on nuclear issues, refugees, and global food challenges. Today, it is very much a follower on the world stage. 

Canada’s new Israel/Palestine policy breaks with its traditional alignment with the United States on the issue, but is in harmony with Mark Carney’s cultivation of ties with Britain and France, countries he visited within hours of being sworn in as prime minister this spring. 

As more countries recognize a Palestinian State, ostensibly as a way station to a “two-state solution,” the further away it appears, like a mirage on the horizon. Simultaneously, as Palestine’s international recognition grows, more Arab states signal acceptance of Israel’s place in the Middle East once the Israel/Hamas war ends. These states, which long saw Israel as nothing but a Western imposition in their neighbourhood, now fear it as a potential regional hegemon. They have witnessed what it has done to Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, and now to Yemen’s Houthis. Even Syria, at war with Israel since 1948, is negotiating a security deal with Jerusalem, a baby step to potential recognition. 

Given public opinion in Israel and Palestine, the prospects for two states may have been better before the war than now. Before the war began, support for two states was 33 per cent among Palestinians, 34 per cent among Israeli Jews, and 60 per cent among Israeli Arabs. Overwhelming majorities of both Palestinians and Israelis now reject the idea. Only 20 per cent of Israeli Jews think peaceful coexistence is possible. Among Israeli Arabs, only 40 per cent do. Palestinian public opinion is harder to gauge, but an indicator of extraordinarily strong feelings is that only five per cent of East Jerusalem’s Palestinians are Israeli citizens. Palestinian leadership and society regard naturalization as complicity. 

Canada is more confident in the two-states idea than Israelis and Palestinians. The primary barrier is that neither the government of Israel nor Gaza accept each other’s right to exist. 

Carney’s whimsical predicates for recognizing Palestine are the Palestinian Authority’s promise to hold elections next year, and a demilitarized Palestine. Palestinians last held a presidential election in 2005, and Hamas has not permitted elections since taking power in Gaza in 2004. Will Canada withdraw recognition if Carney’s predicates don’t pan out?  

The Palestinian Authority and Hamas are like cats and dogs. After taking power, Hamas militants threw a Palestinian Authority presidential guard officer off the top of a 15-storey building, while militants of Fatah, which controls the Palestinian Authority government, killed the imam of Gaza’s Great Mosque, fired on the home of the Palestinian Authority prime minister, and threw a Hamas militant off a 12-storey building. Israel is also deeply divided politically, but has a democratically elected government.

The Palestinian Authority, which has little support among Palestinians, refused to condemn Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack until June of this year. It says it is “willing and able” to govern Gaza, but Hamas, Gaza’s de facto government, shows no sign of rolling over and disarming. Moreover, Israel will not accede to the Palestinian Authority governing Gaza.

Nevertheless, fanciful Canadian thinking persists. Former foreign affairs minister Lloyd Axorthy wants Canada to lead, as he did with his 1990s land mines treaty. He now calls on Canada to pursue the UN’s Responsibility to Protect principle adopted on the recommendation of a Canadian-led commission in 2005. But what was accomplished by Axworthy’s land mines initiative? Some 166 countries—including Palestine—ratified the treaty. The U.S., China, Russia, India, Israel, and Pakistan have not, while Ukraine—to which Ottawa has committed billions in assistance—ratified it, yet deploys land mines.

We live in an anarchic world. Striving for global rules and norms, for international stability and peace is honourable, but the world has never had it. The UN, the cornerstone of Ottawa’s foreign policy since 1945, is “a tired joke” a former senior Canadian ambassador told me. It wouldn’t condemn Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, massacre until this month.

In a biting comment on Canada’s stature at the UN, its proposal to condemn Hamas shortly after the war began, was voted down.

Nelson Wiseman is professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto.

The Hill Times