Good Wednesday morning,
Prime Minister MARK CARNEY will chair a virtual cabinet meeting today at 2 p.m.
The PMO has listed two items on today’s agenda: the state of trade and security negotiations with the United States, and the “situation in the Middle East.”
Carney’s government is weighing whether or not to follow the U.K. in pledging to recognize Palestine as a state, if the government of Israel doesn’t meet certain conditions in the coming months, including allowing more aid into Gaza, The Globe and Mail‘s STEVEN CHASE reported late yesterday, citing an unnamed source “familiar with the matter.”
Meanwhile, Global News’ MACKENZIE GRAY reported on X that Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC and MARC-ANDRÉ BLANCHARD, Carney’s chief of staff, were headed to Washington, D.C., last night for more meetings before U.S. President DONALD TRUMP‘s Aug. 1 deadline.
Bank of Canada reveals its interest rate decision today
Canada’s central bank will reveal its latest decision on the key interest rate this morning.
At 9:45 a.m., the Bank of Canada will publish its decision on whether to raise, lower, or maintain the rate at 2.75. It will also publish its latest Monetary Policy Report.
Bank of Canada governor TIFF MACKLEM and senior deputy governor CAROLYN ROGERS will speak at a press conference at 10:30 a.m. to answer questions about the interest rate decision, and the report.
The key interest rate technically only applies to commercial banks making very short term loans with the central bank. However, it sets a baseline that influences the rate at which commercial banks lend money to businesses and consumers.
But don’t hold your breath or celebrate just yet, as today’s announcement may be anticlimatic.
Economists have already weighed in, and as per a Reuters poll carried out between July 21 and 25, the central bank is expected to let the rate remain at the current level for the third consecutive decision.
This is partly due to the persistent trade uncertainty, and trends in inflation and unemployment, all of which make it challenging for the bank to move its needle down.
In June, inflation rose by 1.9 per cent year over year, below the Bank of Canada’s target rate of two per cent. The number excluding energy, however, was 2.7 per cent, primarily due to a rise in the prices of passenger cars, durable goods, furniture, clothing and footwear.
The unemployment rate for June fell to 6.9 per cent, after a surprising increase in the number of jobs by 83,000.
The economists surveyed by Reuters also believed that the bank will bring down the key rate in September, and one other time this year.
The last such cut was made on March 12, when the rate was cut from three per cent to 2.75.
The bank will also publish its quarterly monetary report today, which will give more details about its projections for Canada’s economy.
The bank’s last report in April said it was becoming “unusually challenging” to predict economic trends and inflation in Canada and globally due to U.S. President DONALD TRUMP’s shifting position on tariffs, and the economy’s response to those shifts.
The report laid out two scenarios for how U.S. trade policy could impact Canada.
Its first scenario assumed that the tariffs are lifted through negotiations, but the process is unpredictable and uncertainty remains in place until the end of 2026. In this case, as per the April monetary policy report, economic growth in Canada and globally “weakens temporarily before picking up” and inflation falls to around 1.5 per cent for a year due to the removal of consumer carbon tax.
In the second scenario, the tariffs remain in place and others are added in, with a long trade war ensuing. This could lead to a “significant recession” in Canada, pushing inflation above three per cent in mid-2026 before returning to the two per cent target.
Today’s monetary policy report will be available here once it has been released.
Anand leaves Gaza summit early
Foreign Minister ANITA ANAND left the international summit on Palestine in New York early yesterday, after meeting with a half-dozen of her peers from around the world.
The UN conference for the “peaceful settlement of the question of Palestine and the implementation of the two-state solution” is scheduled to continue until tomorrow, but Anand took her leave yesterday. She announced $30-million in humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza, and another $10-million toward the Palestinian Authority, a governing body for parts of the West Bank.
While in New York Anand met with counterparts from Norway, France, Brazil, Chile, Egypt, and the Palestinian Authority, according to her department.
Senators call for arms embargo
One quarter of Canada’s Senators have signed onto a letter demanding that the government block further weapons exports to Israel.
Twenty-six Senators signed the statement released to the press yesterday. It noted the “catastrophic levels of food insecurity” in Gaza, and the thousands of children killed during Israel’s offensive in the territory. It referenced a report from Arms Embargo Now, an NGO devoted to stopping arms exports to Israel, and said the signatories were “deeply alarmed” by evidence that Canadian-made weapons were continuing to flow to Israel.
“As a state party to the Arms Trade Treaty, Canada must halt all arms transfers where there is a substantial risk they could be used in serious violations of international law. This is not optional. Canada has a legal obligation to act.
“Recognizing that our government cannot control how and where Israel uses military exports from Canada, we are calling for a full and immediate arms embargo against Israel under Canada’s unilateral sanctions legislation. Anything less is a betrayal of our international commitments and of the universal human rights that Canadians expect us to uphold,” said the statement.
Senator YUEN PAU WOO’s office shared the statement with the press. You can read it in full, including the names of all of the signatories, here.
Canada’s government has already officially banned arms exports to Israel. The CBC’s EVAN DYER examined the report by Arms Embargo Now and public records that contradict Canada’s claim, and you can find his coverage here.
Feds wants residential schools survivors for monument committee
The federal government has issued a call for residential school survivors to help make decisions about a national monument.
The government is planning to one to honour those who survived the schools, which Canada’s government and religious orders operated across the country for more than a century. The purpose of the schools was to erase Indigenous cultures from Canada, and children were forced to attend by the authorities. An estimated 150,000 attended, and many suffered physical and sexual abuse while others died while in the state-sponsored system.
The feds are creating a steering committee to guide the creation of the monument, and issued a statement yesterday encouraging survivors of the schools to apply to sit on the committee. You can find the details here.
Pollsters’ corner
Ipsos surveyed Canadians to get their views on Canada’s trade talks with the U.S. You can check out the results here.
Today’s data
This morning Statistics Canada will release new reports on the production of tobacco products, poultry and eggs, and energy. You can find it all here beginning at 8:30 a.m.
Yesterday StatsCan issued a report on wait times to see a medical specialist in Canada in the year 2024. You can read all about it here.
In the news
Misconduct in GAC: Global Affairs Canada documented 120 cases of misconduct and wrongdoing by its employees in 2024-25. MARLO GLASS has the story.
Ontario Liberals: STUART BENSON reports on turbulence within the Ontario Liberal Party. Check out his story here.
GAC quiet on CUSMA meeting: Global Affairs Canada won’t say when an annual meeting of trade ministers from Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. is being planned. NEIL MOSS reports.
Missing reports: Only the Conservative Party has disclosed last year’s financial statements publicly. Stuart Benson has the details.
Syrian embassy: Canada has no plans to fill its empty embassy in Syria. Neil Moss has that story.
People
Justin Trudeau and Katy Perry dine in Montreal
Former prime minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the news again, but this time it’s TMZ that got the scoop.
The celebrity news site reported that Trudeau had gone out to dinner with pop star KATY PERRY at the swanky Le Violon restaurant in Montreal’s Plateau neighbourhood, and included a few low-quality photos in its report.
Big if true, as they say, at least in the world of celebrity gossip.
A dinner date may be nothing more than that, but Justin Trudeau wouldn’t be the first Trudeau to connect with a celebrity.
His father PIERRE TRUDEAU dated singer and movie star BARBRA STREISAND, and actresses KIM CATTRALL and MARGOT KIDDER. Mother MARGARET famously spent time with the Rolling Stones.
CTV News, meanwhile, reported that there were no obvious signs of romance between the two during their dinner, according to SAMANTHA JIN, the communications consultant for Le Violon. Perry is in Canada for a concert tour with a stop in Ottawa last night, Montreal tonight, Quebec City on Aug. 1, and Toronto on Aug. 5 and Aug. 6.
Former health minister takes up the reins of a flagship Toronto fair
MARK HOLLAND, who served as Canada’s health minister in former prime minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU’s cabinet, announced yesterday that he has joined the Canadian National Exhibition as its CEO.
The CNE is a popular annual fair that takes place in Toronto from mid-August until Labour Day, and attracts thousands of visitors.
Holland called it “more than a fair” in his social media post, and said it is “a celebration of culture, creativity, community, and Canada.”
He was the MP of Ajax-Pickering, Ont., from 2004 to 2011, and then for Ajax from 2015 to 2021, but did not run in the 2025 general election. Liberal MP JENNIFER MCKELVIE replaced him in the riding.
Genuis gets his constituents to pack the venue for Poilievre’s byelection debate
The Conservative MP for Sherwood Park- Fort Saskatchewan, Alta., GARNETT GENUIS, summoned supporters from his riding to sign up to see party Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE take part in a debate for candidates in the byelection for the riding of Battle River-Crowfoot, Alta.
In a post on Facebook on July 27, Genius shared a Google Doc inviting his constituents to register for a seat on a bus “to see Pierre.”
The Battle River–Crowfoot By-Election Candidate Forum took place at 7 p.m. yesterday evening in Camrose, and was organized by the local chamber of commerce. Ten candidates, including Poilievre, registered for the debate, which was moderated by Alberta Chamber of Commerce President SHAUNA FETH.
PEOPLE WATCHING
Meanwhile, Global News’ ROB KAZEMZADEH’s band played in Wakefield, Que., last night. The Globe and Mail’s BOB FIFE and former CTV Power Play host DON MARTIN met up for lunch in Montreal yesterday with DANIELE HAMAMDJIAN, who’s now with NBC News. GREG MACEACHERN met up with RENÉE FILIATRAULT, ANNE MCGRATH, and JOYCE NAPIER for a kitchen party the other day.
What’s the rest of the cabinet up to?
At 9:30 a.m., EVAN SOLOMON, the minister responsible for the economic development agency for Southern Ontario, will announce cash to “support transportation decarbonization” at a stop in Toronto.
What else is happening today?
At 1 p.m., VICKY EATRIDES, the chairperson and CEO of the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission, is making public remarks at the University of Ottawa.
Eatrides is scheduled to speak alongside the CRTC’s general counsel, RACHELLE FRENETTE, as part of an event organized by the university’s Canadian Internet Policy and Public Interest Clinic. Details here.
In case you missed it
Elections Canada heads off Longest Ballot protest
Voters in the upcoming Battle River-Crowfoot byelection will have to use a write-in ballot, a change made by Elections Canada after more than 200 candidates registered for the vote.
Most of those candidates were associated with the Longest Ballot protest group, which tries to junk up ballots in Canadian elections in order to slow down the voting process.
Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE is running in the Aug. 18 contest. He has called for changes to Canada’s election law to prevent protests from obstructing the vote-counting process.
Elections Canada appears to have at least partially solved the problem for now. Instead of printing enormous, check-box ballots for each voter—which take longer to count—it is planning to issue blank ballots, and ask voters to write in the name of their preferred candidate.
Elections Canada has said it will post a list of the candidates for reference at voting stations, and that it will accept ballots on which the names of candidates are misspelled. You can find the details here.
CMHC projects housing starts, prices to decline
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has predicted that construction on new housing will fall for the next three years.
The CMHC issued its summer housing report last week. It included predictions that Canada’s economy would enter a recession, that housing prices would fall for a year before sharply rebounding, and that the number of housing “starts,” or construction projects, would decline for each of the next three years.
You can find the report here.
Australia opens its market to Canadian beef after 22 years
Canada’s “beef” with Australia over red meat has ended on an optimistic note.
The country has opened its market to beef products from Canada, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency announced yesterday. The last time Canada could sell these products in Australia was in 2003, the agency said.
That year, Australia slapped restrictions on importing Canadian beef as the first case of a disease that affects cows, known as the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy, was reported in the country.
The World Organization of Animal Health gave Canada a “negligible risk status” in 2021 on this front, which has now allowed Australia to restart their purchase of beef from Canada again.
Like Canada, Australia is a major producer and exporter of beef.
We asked, you answered
Rodriguez used to hand out ‘Corporate Welfare Bum of the Week Award’
Former NDP MP JOHN RODRIGUEZ, who represented Nickel Belt, Ont., for 18 years (1972-1980 and 1984-1993) and was a loud, colourful and dynamic MP, used to hand out what he called the ‘Corporate Welfare Bum of the Week Award’ in the House of Commons, although former NDP federal leader DAVID LEWIS coined the term. Congrats to winner KAT SULLIVAN. Kudos to everyone else who participated: NATHAN NASH, RAMESH CHEEMALAKONDA, GARY VANDERHADEN, and LYNNE THACKER.
Book winner
Russia started the war with Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, and NICHOLAS LEBEL wins a copy What Ukrainian Elections Taught Me About Democracy, by JANE COOPER, and published by McGill-Queen’s University Press, for answering correctly. Kudos to: NATHAN NASH, ENIKO GALGOCZI, JANICE HAMILTON, GARY VANDERHADEN, RON COLUCCI, and TREVOR NG.
TODAY’S POLITICAL TRIVIA QUESTION
Which MP once slapped a B.C. salmon on top of the desk of then prime minister BRIAN MULRONEY in the House Chamber to attract attention to the environment?
Please send your responses to trivia@hilltimes.com by NOON today ET and the winner’s name will be in tomorrow’s Politics This Morning along with the names of all the participants.
Tells us what you think of Politics This Morning! Send your feedback to pmazereeuw@hilltimes.com and rkachhela@hilltimes.com