He’s back! And with a bang. 

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre sailed back into the House with more than 80 per cent of the vote in one of Canada’s most Conservative ridings. 

Some 200-plus opponents were only able to garner close to 20 per cent of the vote in Battle River-Crowfoot, Alta. With a voter turnout of almost 60 per cent, this byelection had a lot more national attention than most. 

By rights, the Poilievre family should be celebrating this victory and planning their triumphant return to the House of Commons this fall. 

However, all is not as it appears to be. In the hours following the victory, Anaida Poilievre posted on social media about the “up and down” and the “ugly side” of political life, claiming that “friendships come and go as if dictated by the polls. Just like the weather, people come and go.”

She also announced that she was moving to Montreal, Que., for a month to write a book. She was asking for tips on housing as Montreal does not permit short-term rentals like Airbnb. 

Anaida may have a housing problem, but she could also have a writing problem. 

I’m skeptical about anyone being able to write a real book in a month, unless it’s ghostwritten.

And why would she move to Montreal to write a book unless she is planning a political love-letter to Quebecers in an effort to win them over on her husband’s behalf? 

This coming January, Poilievre is facing an internal party review, and he must be feeling some undercurrent of concern. That could explain his wife’s social postings on the “ugly side” of political life. 

She is right. There is an ugly side to politics. 

When a leader is on the way out, the majority of caucus members migrate to the next leader to protect their own interests and positions within the group. 

When a leader is rock solid, they usually don’t have a problem with loyalty. But when one’s leadership is under attack internally, former friends can quickly abandon the boss in favour of a future leadership hopeful. 

Even when a leader is not under attack, there can be an internal political opponent who will quietly fan the flames of dissent, while publicly declaring support for the leader. 

In the last federal election, provincial Progressive Conservative premiers like Doug Ford in Ontario and Tim Houston in Nova Scotia were openly critical of Poilievre.

Houston even stated publicly that he was studying French himself, giving a possible hint of future leadership ambitions. 

Both premiers are aware of what happened to another former premier, Jean Charest, who was humiliated in his bid to beat Poilievre during the last Conservative leadership race. 

The progressive party Charest left years ago was quite different from the party that Poilievre is now leading. 

Now that Poilievre is a member of Parliament for rural Alberta, his Conservative base must loom large in determining his future. 

He will have to work hard to get along with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who has her own base amongst the party’s right-wing.

Poilievre will also have to reinforce his support for Canada while Smith appears quite ready to provide legal support for Alberta separatists. 

That influence runs counter to the move he needs to make if he plans on winning a general election. If Poilievre does not soften his sharp edges and move to the centre, he stands zero chance of gaining support of the majority of Canadians, especially women. 

His partner, Anaida, is the person who can help him soften that edge. So her move to Montreal is likely an effort to set the stage for a French seduction operation. 

When the book comes out, she will probably tour the province and the country with a message about the softer side of her partner. By doing so, she will try to move the dial on Poilievre’s numbers with women and francophones in Quebec.

All this work to save his job must be completed before the January leadership review in Calgary.

The location, chosen by the national executive, favours Poilievre because of the strength of his support in Saskatchewan and Alberta. Supporters from those provinces will be able to drive to the convention. Instead, flights will be required from Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and Ontario, which hikes the personal cost to party members. 

Poilievre will need big numbers to survive. His wife is a key element to his survival because she is a solid campaigner and can highlight his softer side. 

But Operation Seduction has not happened yet. And the Alberta base may just not like it. 

Sheila Copps is a former Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister, and a former deputy prime minister.

The Hill Times

 

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