At least three safe Liberal seats poised to open as high-profile contenders line up
With at least three safe Liberal seats expected to become vacant in the coming weeks and months, prominent political figures are positioning themselves for the nominations and upcoming byelections.
Then-Transport minister Chrystia Freeland (University-Rosedale, Ont.) announced last week that she was stepping down from cabinet to become Canada’s special representative for the reconstruction of Ukraine. She also confirmed she would not re-offer in the next general election. While she will remain an MP for now, some media reports suggest Freeland may resign her seat in the next few months.
Following her resignation from cabinet on Sept. 16, Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc (Beauséjour, N.B.) took over her internal trade minister duties in addition to his current role, while Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon (Gatineau, Que.), who will also keep this post, took over her transport minister duties.
According to government sources, former cabinet ministers Bill Blair (Scarborough Southwest, Ont.) and Jonathan Wilkinson (North Vancouver-Capilano, B.C.) will soon resign from their House seats for high-profile diplomatic appointments in Europe. Blair is said to be slated for Canada’s high commission in the United Kingdom, replacing Ralph Goodale, and Wilkinson for the European Union in Belgium.
First elected in 2015, Blair carried his seat by 31 points in the last election. Wilkinson, who has also been in Parliament since 2015, retained his seat on April 28 with a 26 per cent margin.
Between 2018 and 2025, Blair served in several senior cabinet positions, including Border Security, Public Safety, King’s Privy Council, and National Defence. Similarly, Wilkinson also held senior cabinet portfolios, including Fisheries, Environment, and Natural Resources.
Four-term Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith (Beaches-East York, Ont.) may step down from his seat in the coming months depending on the outcome of the Ontario Liberal leadership race. The top provincial Liberal leadership position became vacant after Bonnie Crombie recently announced her exit plans after she failed to win enough votes in the leadership review vote. Crombie won 57 per cent. Erskine Smith, who openly campaigned against Crombie in her leadership review, is now expected to run for the provincial leadership again, having lost to Crombie in the previous contest in December 2023. After that loss, Erskine-Smith initially announced he would not seek re-election as an MP, but later reversed his decision after being promoted to cabinet by then–prime minister Justin Trudeau last December. If he were to win the Ontario Liberal leadership, he would have to step down from his federal seat. Even if he does not win, it is unclear whether he would seek re-election next time around either federally or not. Erskine-Smith won his riding by a margin of 44 per cent of the votes in the last election.
Heritage Minister Steven Guilbeault (Laurier-Sainte-Marie, Que.) could also step down in the coming months, according to Liberal sources.
Even though numerous media reports have suggested that Blair and Wilkinson are expected to get diplomatic appointments, they are neither confirming nor denying these reports.
Since May, The Hill Times has reached out to Blair three times, but the former defence minister said he would not comment on what he described as “idle speculation” on Sept. 2.
“I’m not going to comment on it. That’s for others to speak to, not for me,” Blair told The Hill Times in a follow-up phone interview on Sept. 3.
“I’m not going to comment,” Blair told The Hill Times after being asked that he was getting a diplomatic appointment.
The Hill Times also reached out to Wilkinson on June 2 by text to ask if he planned to complete his current term as an MP. He responded then that, “at this point,” his intention was to “continue serving” his “constituents.”
The Hill Times reached out to him again on Sept. 2 and Sept. 3, but did not hear back.
None of these ridings have yet opened yet, but speculation is already underway about potential candidates. A prominent name repeatedly mentioned is former Liberal MP Marco Mendicino, who represented Eglinton–Lawrence, Ont., from 2015 to 2025 before choosing not to run again. Mendicino supported Prime Minister Mark Carney (Nepean, Ont.) in the last federal Liberal leadership race, and briefly served as his interim chief of staff until Marc-André Blanchard was hired to run the PMO. Mendicino was unavailable for comment last week. While rumours last year suggested he might run for Toronto mayor, and media reports this past May indicated he was considering switching to municipal politics, Liberal insiders now believe a mayoral bid is unlikely. Instead, speculation has shifted to the possibility of Mendicino seeking a Liberal nomination either in Scarborough Southwest or University–Rosedale. The Toronto Star also recently reported that John Tory Jr., son of former Toronto mayor John Tory, could be a contender for the Scarborough Southwest Liberal nomination, as well. Meanwhile, investment banker and a prominet business executive Mark Wiseman is also seen as a potential candidate for the Liberal nomination in University-Rosedale, according to a well-connected Liberal source.
In North Vancouver-Capilano, B.C., Liberal ministerial staffer Liam Olsen will likely run for the party’s nomination to succeed Wilkinson, according to party sources.
More prominent Liberals are expected to enter the race to replace outgoing MPs in these safe ridings in the coming weeks.
Amid the jockeying for nominations, a prominent pollster is warning of challenges ahead for the governing Liberals. A new Ekos Research poll suggested last week that the Liberal lead is shrinking, with 42 per cent support compared to 34 per cent for the Conservatives, 12 per cent for the NDP, and three per cent for the Greens. The poll of 1,614 Canadians was conducted between Sept. 5-12, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The poll also found that 58 per cent of Canadians approve of Carney’s performance, while 42 per cent disapprove. By comparison, an Ekos poll in July gave the Liberals a 13-point lead over the Conservatives.
“The Liberals have gone down a little bit, but the more impressive movement is the Conservatives. So the newly re-elected Conservative leader is showing some signs of life, and that has made the race considerably narrower than it was the last time we reported, when it was 13 points,” said Frank Graves, founder and president of Ekos Research. “In addition to the narrowing of the race, there is a somewhat larger decline in approval for Mr. Carney.”
Graves said that it’s chiefly because of the ongoing downturn in the economy and the gloomy outlook of Canadians. He said that only 20 per cent of Canadians think that their quality of life is better now than 25 years ago. The outlook is especially worse amongst Canadians under the age of 35, according to the poll.
Statistics Canada’s August numbers stated that the unemployment rate rose to 7.1 per cent, and the economy has shed 66,000 jobs. This is the highest jobless rate since 2016. In July, Canada lost 41,000 jobs.
Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne (Saint-Maurice-Champlain, Que.) is set to table his first budget Nov. 4, and it remains unclear whether the Liberals can meet Canadians’ high expectations. The budget vote will be a confidence vote, and the Liberals would need the support of at least one opposition party to win this vote. Currently, the Liberals have 169 seats, the Conservatives 144, Bloc Québécois 22, the NDP seven, and the Greens one seat.
Graves said that the Liberals’ slippage in the polling number is not alarming, but is enough that the Liberals should pay attention as it’s a minority government and the opposition parties can defeat the government at any time. The average age of a minority government in Canada is 19 months.
“These things may have implications for how opposition would weigh the risks and benefits of something which nobody’s thinking about but pulling the plug on the government in the next election, in the confidence measure around the budget,” said Graves. “I don’t think it’s a likelihood, but I wouldn’t rule it out either, if these things [Liberal slippage in the polls] continue.”
Graves said that the last election happened only five months ago, and it’s highly unlikely that the opposition parties would pull the plug. However, he cited the example of the Joe Clark government that lasted less than nine months and was defeated on a budget confidence vote in 1980.
“It’s a low probability, but it’s something I don’t think you could eliminate entirely,” said Graves. “The longer term problem is, if these problems persist, economic anxieties continue to be extremely gloomy, and the situation with the economy doesn’t recover, then I think this will then start weighing heavily on the government.”
arana@hilltimes.com
The Hill Times
LICENSING
PODCAST
ALERTS
