Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision to ease his elbows-up approach with United States President Donald Trump’s administration and remove tariffs on American goods last month has found Carney getting elbowed out of the high approval ratings he has been receiving since March 24, 10 days after he was sworn in as Canada’s 24^th prime minister.

The results of an Angus Reid Institute survey of 3,656 Canadians released on Sept. 5 found a drop in approval for Carney (Nepean, Ont.) from 57 per cent in June to 51 per cent. More striking is the increase in his disapproval rating from 29 per cent in June to 41 per cent this month. 

Thirty-five per cent of respondents were dissatisfied that the Carney government dropped all tariffs on goods from the U.S. that are covered by the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement as of Sept. 1. And, 61 per cent of those surveyed also said they favoured taking a “hard” approach with America, “refusing difficult concessions even if it means worsening of trade relations with the U.S.,” according to the Angus Reid release on the poll results.

Doubts about the ability of Carney’s negotiating team to deliver a good deal for Canada have also risen from 45 per cent in July to 53 per cent in September.

The numbers represent the first signs that “early goodwill from Canadians towards Carney is slipping,” said the Angus Reid Institute in a release. “While hardly cause for alarm, it is a noteworthy indication of Canadians becoming more critical after the early grace period often afforded to newly elected leaders.”

Angus Reid Institute president Shachi Kurl said in an interview that the survey results reveal a “softening of approval in Mark Carney’s leadership, and whether removing retaliatory tariffs was the right move or wrong move.”

“Canadians, more broadly, are facing the nexus of expectation meeting reality, where the expectation was that it was going to be elbows up and fight, fight, fight—and the reality is that you’ve got a government that might be making some moves that are strategic, but do not necessarily meet the expectation of the broader public,” she explained.

In Kurl’s view, the Carney government is in “trust-us mode” where it might not “look or sound like” it’s “taking the fight” to the White House.

“From my perspective, you’re seeing the numbers you’re seeing because the words and the actions have not necessarily matched the tone from the April election. But it’s a moment of time,” she said.

“The bigger question becomes how long does it last and what does it look like in terms of the final product. If it’s something that a majority of Canadians feel is okay, you can then see approval tick back up. But if there’s not a deal or is not what a plurality of Canadians wanted or expected, you could see further softening.”

When asked about Carney’s removal of most counter-tariffs imposed on U.S. imports into Canada, 39 per cent of respondents said it was the “right move,” while 35 per cent believed it to be the “wrong move.”

Those who voted Conservative in the last federal election were almost divided in their views. Forty per cent said it was the right move; 38 per cent disagreed.

“This is very much about expectation management,” said Kurl. “I thought that Carney did an effective job during the summer when he said there is a world where we have to live with some amount of tariffs.”

But she added that perhaps Ottawa has not “vigorously promoted” enough of its strategy in dealing with that tariff reality in which nearly nine in 10 (87 per cent) of Conservative supporters were not confident that Canada’s negotiating team would deliver a good deal in its trade negotiations with the U.S.

The dip in favourability toward the Liberals has also found the federal Conservatives getting a boost in support and a lead over the governing Grits by two points, or 40 per cent compared to 38 per cent for the Liberals who are most popular among female voters. Men, especially those between the ages of 35 and 54, prefer the Conservatives.

However, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre (Battle River-Crowfoot, Alta.) still struggles to resonate with most Canadians, even after handily winning a House of Commons seat with more than 80 per cent of the vote in an Alberta byelection last month.

In fact, he received the highest unfavourability rating—at 58 per cent—in the September results than he has received from Angus Reid polling since September 2022 when he won the federal Conservative leadership and his unfavourability rating was 51 per cent. 

But the Angus Reid Institute survey also had good news for the NDP, which received 10 per cent support from decided and leaning voters. However, as the poll found, about one in 10 of Canadians who voted Liberal in April’s federal election said they would revert to the NDP. It’s a case, as Kurl described, of Canadians of returning to where “their heart was, but where their head went into the election.”

Trump and Canada’s relationship with the U.S., along with jobs and the economy, dominated the concerns of Canadians—at 20 per cent and 16.6 per cent, respectively—according to the results of a survey by Nanos Research, which showed the Liberals leading in ballot support, and Carney remaining the overwhelming choice as prime minister.

The Liberals led at 42.7 per cent, compared to the Conservatives at 32.9 per cent, based on a poll of 1,002 respondents that ended on Sept. 5. Around this time last year, the situation was reversed where the Tories were leading the Grits by 15 points with 40-per-cent approval for the Conservatives compared to 25 per cent for the Liberals.

In the latest survey, Carney was chosen as the preferred PM by 50.2 per cent of Canadians, or nearly double Poilievre’s rating at 28 per cent.

Based on long-term Nanos Research tracking, Carney is about at the same popularity rating as his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, enjoyed shortly after becoming prime minister in 2015. Since succeeding Trudeau, Carney has also outpaced Poilievre as preferred prime minister.

Nanos Research also tracks “party power,” which is based on ballot support, choice for prime minister, and whether party leaders have “good leadership qualities.”

On that score, the Liberals registered 61.5 points out of 100 according to the recent numbers—which Nanos Research said, “suggests not only electoral strength but brand resilience,”—followed by the Conservatives at 46.4 points, the Bloc Québécois at 35.7, the New Democrats at 34.5, the Green Party at 28.6, and the People’s Party at 21.9.

Nik Nanos, founder and chief data scientist at Nanos Research, told The Hill Times in an interview that “Carney is well positioned to benefit from what’s on the mind of Canadians: Trump, U.S. relations, and jobs and the economy.”

He said that the prime minister relied on his background as former governor of the central banks of Canada and the United Kingdom to “turn around sagging Liberal fortunes” and lead the party to victory in the spring election.

“The big question is how much leeway are Canadians going to give him before he actually has to deliver something,” said Nanos.

“It’s one thing for people to think that you can do a good job,” he said. “It’s another thing to say all the right things on these issues, but Canadians want action. They want to know what’s going to happen in terms of the trade relationship with the U.S. and if there are going to be infrastructure projects of national interest.”

“For Mark Carney, it’s ‘show me the money—and the projects’.”

Nanos said that while the prime minister has “some political latitude, the longer that he governs without delivering on something substantive in the eyes of Canadians, the greater the risk that he has, which is two-pronged.”

“First of all, because he’s moved to the centre and has effectively dropped a number of the big Trudeau-era platforms such as the carbon tax and the move toward electric vehicles, he’s created space for the NDP—if it can get itself organized. If he’s not able to deliver—if it’s his fault or not—he opens himself up to criticism from the Conservatives that he’s just like the previous government: says a lot of stuff, but doesn’t get anything done.”

Abacus Data also recently released the results of polling it conducted over the Labour Day weekend, and found economic concerns dominating the minds of Canadians, while a “gradual erosion continues” over approval of Carney’s government and his leadership.

The survey of 1,500 Canadians revealed that six in 10 (61 per cent) said the cost of living was their biggest concern, followed by the economy at 39 per cent, and Trump and his administration at 38 per cent.

Approval for the Carney government was at 48 per cent, while its disapproval rating was at 30 per cent. Although the Liberals have seen their popularity numbers higher than when their party was led by Trudeau in 2024 and early 2025, they have lost the momentum they had this past June and July when they surpassed 50 per cent.

“Government approval remains below 50 per cent, and Canadians are increasingly anxious about the economic outlook,” Abacus CEO David Coletto wrote in the report on his firm’s latest survey results.

“The fact that the economy contracted in [the second quarter of the fiscal year]—the first decline in nearly two years—is likely to reinforce that anxiety. That’s not an easy environment for an incumbent government.”

And while “Carney continues to maintain a net-positive favourability rating,” noted Coletto, “the gap is narrowing,”

As of Sept. 2, 45 per cent of respondents had a favourable view of the prime minister—down from 51 per cent in early June—while 32 per cent had an unfavourable view of him, up from 27 per cent in early June.

But Carney’s numbers were better than Poilievre’s, where 42 per cent of Canadians had a negative impression of the Conservative leader compared to 39 per cent felt more positively toward him, particularly among younger men and people on the Prairies, according to Coletto.

However, the Tories were chosen as the party best able to handle both the rising cost of living (at 38 per cent compared to 29 per cent for the Liberals) and the economy overall at 43 per cent, or seven points higher than the governing Grits at 36 per cent.

Respondents also identified the Conservatives as best to deal with immigration at 60 per cent (with the Liberals at 18 per cent) and crime and public safety, also at 60 per cent, whereas the Liberals were chosen by only 19 per cent of respondents.

But the Liberals led as the preferred party to deal with Trump and his administration (at 55 per cent compared to 23 per cent for the Conservatives); on climate change and the environment (at 33 per cent compared to 12 per cent for the Conservatives); and on health care (also at 33 per cent compared to 24 per cent for the Conservatives).

“The summer of political calm may be ending,” said Coletto. “With Parliament returning and the government facing rising pressure to respond to economic headwinds, we could see more significant movement in the months ahead.”

The Hill Times