OAKVILLE, ONT.—One of the challenges currently facing Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre is that he is forced to operate in a tight political box, giving him little room to manoeuvre.

That’s because ever since Prime Minister Mark Carney took power, he has moved his Liberal government to the right on several key issues, which has deprived the Conservatives of political oxygen.

How can Poilievre properly rage against the Liberals when they’re talking about doing things like increasing military spending, building pipelines, and making the public service more efficient—all things the Conservatives would likely support?

Of course, one reason why Carney can adopt such rightish positions is that, with the NDP in a devastated and demoralized state after the last federal election, he faces no real opposition on the left.

And that situation doesn’t look like it’s going to change anytime soon.

So, given all this, what can Poilievre do to regain his mojo?

Some are arguing he needs to change his persona. They say he needs to drop his tough-guy, brawler image and instead present himself as a nicer, gentler, kinder leader.

As pollster Bruce Anderson recently put it, “Poilievre’s chances of winning depend on him becoming more appealing to more people.”

But, to my mind, this strategy won’t work. Just as a leopard can’t change its spots, Poilievre can’t change who he is, and if he tries to be something he isn’t, he’ll only come across as inauthentic.

If there’s one thing voters can sense, it’s a phony.

So, what do I think Poilievre should do to escape the confines of his political box?

Simply put, he needs to find issues that cut.

And by “issues that cut,” I mean policy positions that his base will overwhelmingly support, but which will also split the Liberals, meaning they’ll be difficult for Carney to appropriate.

A good example of a “cutting issue” was former Conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney’s support for freer trade with the United States in the late 1980s.

Free trade was an issue that unified Mulroney’s political base (including alienated Western voters who otherwise might have turned to the fledgling Reform Party) and, at the same time, divided the Liberals, many of whom supported the concept.

Another former Conservative prime minister, Stephen Harper, also employed cutting issues.

For instance, Harper pushed a tough-on-crime agenda which appealed to his conservative base and also many Canadians outside his base.

Now, unfortunately, I can’t tell you with any confidence what issue would cut well for Poilievre.

But I can tell you that the Conservative Party is likely fervently polling right now and trying to find a cutting issue.

This is when pollsters really earn their money.

They must comb through reams of research data—assiduously sorting through demographics, cross-tabs, and voting intentions—to find that one issue that’ll help propel their client to victory.

Indeed, Poilievre seems to be road-testing some of that polling research.

For example, he recently lashed out at the Carney government over its stance on allowing temporary foreign workers into Canada.

As he put it, “As our young people have a quarter-century high in their unemployment, Mark Carney this year is expected to bring in a record number of temporary foreign workers to take the jobs of Canadian youth.”

So, I strongly suspect Poilievre’s pollsters are telling him that immigration is an issue that cuts for him.

And there are no doubt other cutting issues for Poilievre to exploit.

My point is: to win the next election, Poilievre doesn’t have to be liked; he just needs to get people to agree with him.

Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant.

The Hill Times

 

See all stories BY GERRY NICHOLLS