Will Carney’s cabinet shuffle favour high-profile rookies or veteran MPs?
From an ex-political journalist, Vancouver’s former mayor, a survivor of a mass murder, a former banking CEO and other star candidates who performed impressively on election night, Prime Minister Mark Carney has no shortage of high-profile rookie MPs to pick from for cabinet positions.
The question remains: around how many veteran ministers from the Trudeau era will stay, or if Carney (Nepean, Ont.) will opt to make his mark with a slate of fresh faces? That new cabinet will be named on May 13, according to Rideau Hall.
Several Liberal strategists told The Hill Times there are a number of factors to consider when putting together the team, including gender parity, regional representation, diversity, languages spoken, and more.
“Cabinet making is more art than science,” said Liberal strategist Andrew Perez, noting Carney had committed to gender parity at his first post-election press conference. “It’s a real balancing act, particularly for the Liberal Party with one of the most diverse caucuses.”
And as the Liberals head into their fourth term, “Carney has somehow been able to project both stability and change, and that’s what’s been so brilliant about his offering,” said Perez, a principal at Perez Strategies. “It has really allowed the party to be resuscitated.”
An expansion from Carney’s pared down “war cabinet” he announced pre-election is likely.
In early March, Carney tapped 23 ministers, cutting a dozen cabinet roles and shuffling out 17 MPs. Carney had inherited former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s cabinet of 36 ministers, and faced criticism for keeping many ministers who’d worked closely with his predecessor. He was also criticized for folding in women’s and gender equality as well as labour files into other portfolios.
Several strategists said a cabinet position could be an olive branch to new MPs from out west, given rumblings of Alberta separatist sentiments.
Corey Hogan (Calgary Confederation, Alta.) and Buckley Belanger (Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, Sask.) both flipped Conservative seats on election night, and were mentioned by Hill watchers as potential cabinet picks, along with Eleanor Olszewski (Edmonton Centre, Alta.), a lawyer who won in former cabinet minister Randy Boissonnault’s riding.
“There will almost certainly be at least one [Alberta] caucus member in cabinet, potentially two,” Perez said of the rookie western MPs.
“I’d circle [Belanger’s] name because the Liberals haven’t had caucus or cabinet representation in Saskatchewan since 2019, when Ralph Goodale lost his seat,” Perez said, adding that Belanger, a Métis man and former Saskatchewan MLA, “ticks many boxes.”
Rebecca Chartrand (Churchill—Keewatinook Aski, Man.), who flipped a northern Manitoba riding that was previously seen as an NDP stronghold, could also be a contender. An Anishinaabe, Inninew, Dakota, and Métis leader, she has a background in education and advocating for Indigenous and northern communities.
Gregor Robertson (Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby, B.C.), who served as Vancouver’s mayor from 2008 until 2018, is also surmised to be a cabinet pick, with Perez describing him as “a progressive Liberal with very strong environmental credentials.”
Carlos Leitão (Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Que.) served as Quebec’s minister of finance from 2014 and 2018, and also has a finance and economics background
“He would bring a lot of interesting perspectives to the table,” Meredith Logan, a senior consultant at Summa Strategies, said in an interview. “He might have some insights on how to best approach the Bloc [Québécois], considering how many seats they have.”
Tim Hodgson (Markham—Thornhill, Ont.) is another new MP with an extensive finance background. He was special adviser to Carney when he was governor of the Bank of Canada, and was formerly CEO of Goldman Sachs Canada.
“Where do you put a high-profile person like him?” Logan said.
Hogdson also held onto former cabinet minister Mary Ng’s seat, “a difficult riding that was important to hold,” said Boukalas, of the 6,500 votes Hodgson secured over the second-place Conservative candidate.
Evan Solomon (Toronto Centre, Ont.) a former political journalist, is also considered one to watch for a cabinet pick, though it’s not clear if he’ll first have to learn the ropes on the back bench. Solomon scored a decisive victory, pulling 64 per cent of the ballots, putting him more than 25,000 votes ahead of the Conservative runner-up.
Nathalie Provost (Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville, Que.), a survivor of the 1989 École Polytechnique massacre and gun control advocate, another new high-profile Liberal MP from Quebec, was also suggested to be one to watch.
“These are some of the shiny new pennies who have been elected,” said Logan in comparison to Carney’s pre-election “war cabinet” but they will likely be balanced with the more seasoned ministers.
Plus, there may be some “lower-profile” backbenchers who have been in the Liberal caucus for a while who have worked hard and are well-respected, Perez added.
All of the ministers Carney named to cabinet back in March maintained their seats except one. Health Minister Kamal Khera lost her Brampton West, Ont., seat to the Conservatives by fewer than 1,000 votes. A former nurse, Khera had been that riding’s MP since 2015, and was given the health portfolio in the March cabinet shuffle—Carney’s first after becoming leader.
Liberal strategist Greg MacEachern suggested the May 13 cabinet announcement may not be a seismic shakeup.
“Prime Minister Carney strikes me as a very deliberate person, and thoughtful,” said MacEachern, the founding principal at KAN Strategies. “His previous cabinet choices would not have been done randomly.”
Carney faced criticism that his pre-election cabinet was a continuation of the Trudeau era, but MacEachern suggested those takes were partisan.
“The reality is, whether you’re experienced in the role or not, if you’re successful, why would you not continue?” he said. “He could dump everyone and bring in a brand new cabinet with no experience, and Conservatives would say ‘now isn’t the time to do that.’”
Stalwart cabinet members like Public Safety Minister David McGuinty (Ottawa South, Ont.), Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly (Ahuntsic-Cartierville, Que.), and International Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc (Beauséjour, N.B.)—all of whom recently travelled to Washington, D.C., with Carney for a high-profile meeting with United States President Donald Trump—are seen as likely to remain in cabinet.
Leah Young, a Bluesky Strategy Group consultant with a Conservative background, said Carney has told Canadians that this isn’t another Trudeau government. Now, “we’ll see if his actions on the Hill reflect that,” she said in an interview with The Hill Times.
Portfolios that touch on crime, housing, and immigration are likely to see a shakeup, she said, as these issues may have lost the Liberals valuable seats in the Greater Toronto Area.
Focussing on the justice portfolio in particular, she said “would be a big but necessary departure from Trudeau’s legacy.” Currently those responsibilities are managed by Gary Anandasangaree (Scarborough-Guildwood-Rouge Park, Ont.), who manages mammoth portfolios in justice, Crown-Indigenous relations, northern affairs, and as Canada’s Attorney General.
As for the Conservative’s shadow cabinet, Young said a big shakeup likely isn’t in the cards.
“I’m hearing stability is the way forward right now,” she said. “I take that to mean most people will stay in their roles.”
Plus, with 25 new Conservative MPs getting acclimated to their new roles, there likely won’t be movement until they get settled into the House of Commons.
“New caucus members will have time and opportunity to show their strength and what they can contribute,” Young said. “There are a lot of key players and new members of Conservative caucus, but it will take time for them to get their feet on the ground and understand Parliament.”
As for the Liberals, for a party that has been in power for nearly a decade, fresh faces might be an important signal that a page has been turned.
“Mark Carney is moving away from signal-driven and values-driven government, and wants to get things done,” said Angelo Bakoulas, a Liberal who is a senior consultant with Bluesky. “He wants people around him that will actually be able to actually put in the work.”
mglass@hilltimes.com
The Hill Times
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