Every week The Hill Times asks a crack team of political pundits to opine on how the campaign is going, and what the party leaders should do next.

This week we hear from:

• Dan Arnold, the chief strategy officer at the research consultancy Pollara, and former top researcher for Liberal Party election campaigns and in the Prime Minister’s Office under Justin Trudeau.
• Josie Sabatino, a senior consultant at Summa Strategies, former communications director to then-Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, ex-Conservative Party campaign spokesperson, and Hill Times columnist.
• Angella MacEwen, a senior economist at the Canadian Union of Public Employees, policy fellow at the Broadbent Institute, and former NDP candidate in Ottawa Centre.

THE QUESTION: Which policy idea (or ideas) will be most important for your party to win over the voters it wants?

Dan Arnold 

“It’s quaint to assume policy will matter in this election. This election is about the giant orange elephant in the room, and the election is going to boil down to who Canadians feel will stand up to [U.S. President Donald] Trump and deal with the fallout from all the Trumpy things he’s going to do over the next four years.

“Faced with that, are voters really going to care about the nuances of housing platforms? Yes, domestic policy is important, but the Trump card beats every other issue this campaign.

“And let’s be honest, specific policy announcements around ‘the Trump issue’ will probably all sound the same. All the leaders will promise to increase defence spending (even NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh!) and knock down interprovincial trade barriers and build statues to Laura Secord. But voters will vote more on how they feel about the leaders rather than the specifics of what each leader is promising. 

“The question is who voters want in the cockpit, not which plane to use (well, so long as we all agree we don’t want an F-35 as the plane).

“It’s abundantly clear from all the polling available that the Liberal comeback is being driven by Canadians who want Carney flying the plane. This is especially the case among older Canadians who are leery of [Conservative Leader Pierre] Poilievre’s ‘sounds like Trump’ demeanour. So expect the Liberals to keep pressing this issue to solidify the gains they’ve made among older voters. They will announce policy ideas connected to this, but it won’t be about those policies—it will be about keeping the public’s attention on Trump and the ballot question they want.”

Josie Sabatino

“Since winning the party leadership, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has used his social media platforms to highlight the affordability crisis impacting Canadians. His early campaign proposals suggest that this issue will remain his primary focus as he aims to stay the course. 

“From a tax-free savings account top-up, to support for seniors, and a commitment to eliminating the GST on new homes under $1.3-million, Poilievre is trying to reach the voters who rank cost of living as top of mind, and feel that they have been left behind in the last decade. 

“Message discipline has helped Poilievre maintain his front-runner status for much of the last two years, and all signs point to a continued focus on reaching voters who are living with a scarcity mindset. In the coming days, expect to see more policies focused on cutting government spending to put more money back in the pockets of middle-class Canadians.”

Angella MacEwen

“This election has quickly become about each party’s vision for protecting Canada in the face of Trump’s economic warfare, and whether voters believe that a party has a plan that will provide economic independence at the same time that it maintains the values that we hold dear. 

“The NDP vision is for a Canada that is more equitable, that invests in necessary public infrastructure to enable more inter-provincial trade, and that doesn’t allow critical assets to be sold off, or parts of our health care system to be turned into American-style private health care. 

“Without the NDP, the last Liberal government would not have introduced dental care or gotten concrete progress on pharmacare. The NDP needs voters who support those policies and share those values to remember that it has always taken a strong NDP caucus to pressure a Liberal government to follow through on those kinds of election promises. 

“The NDP will also need to be focused on presenting bold, creative ideas on an industrial strategy that will build on Canada’s strengths, by focusing on what is best for workers, families, and communities, instead of doubling down on the same old ineffective economic policies of deregulation and tax cuts that both the Liberals and Conservatives have presented so far in this election campaign.”

This piece first appeared in Politics This Morning, your go-to source for insider news, analysis, and updates on where all the key political players are that day. Get more insider coverage directly to your inbox from The Hill Times‘ editor Peter Mazereeuw and reporter Riddhi Kachhela in this subscriber-only daily newsletter. Sign up here.

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