The House of Commons will play host to five more MPs following the 2025 election compared to the 44^th Parliament, as Canadians vote in a redistributed map that is slightly more favourable to Conservatives than the one contested in 2021.

Canadians are split among 343 ridings this election, up from the 338 that have been contested since the 2015 election. Transposed Elections Canada data shows that, if the 2021 election had been contested in the new ridings, Conservatives would boast seven more MPs, and the Bloc Québécois would have picked up an extra two seats. 

The Liberals would have two fewer seats in the transposed map, while the NDP would lose one. The Green Party would retain its two seats.

In good news for the Grits, however, the party would have picked up a single seat in Saskatchewan—a province which has only elected Conservatives federally since 2019. 

That means that the Liberals are going into the election nominally holding the northern Saskatchewan riding of Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River, despite having lacked representation in the Land of Living Skies for almost six years.

Though the changed boundaries would not have affected the overall outcome of the 2021 election—the Liberals would still govern in a minority Parliament, and the NDP would retain the numbers necessary to enter a supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing party—the data provides insights into the new electoral calculus each of the parties must consider during this election campaign.

Alberta has picked up three of the five new ridings, with Ontario and British Columbia receiving one each. Quebec was initially due to lose one seat, but legislation was passed in 2022 requiring that no province would lose representation compared to the 2012 redistribution. 

The Hill Times has collected the Elections Canada data and created tables—as well as a map—showing the new ridings, the party whose candidate would have been elected to the riding in 2021, their percentage of the vote and winning margin, and the runner-up party.

These lists come with some caveats. The data does not include the results of the 11 byelections held during the 44^th Parliament. The Liberal Party data for the former riding of Spadina–Fort York, Ont., are the votes for Kevin Vuong, who appeared on the ballot as Liberal candidate, although he lost the party’s endorsement two days before the election.

These lists also include only the party names, not those of candidates, as some ridings have changed substantially or been abolished to be consumed by neighbouring ridings. 

Consider the former riding of Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing, Ont., which has been incorporated into the ridings of Sault Ste. Marie–Algoma, Manitoulin–Nickel Belt, Kapuskasing–Timmins–Mushkewgowuk, and Thunder Bay–Superior North. Further south, federal minister Anita Anand’s riding of Oakville, Ont., has been split into Oakville East and Oakville West.

Only 48 ridings are unchanged between the 2021 and 2025 elections: the three territory seats; 24 in Quebec; 15 in Ontario; and three in British Columbia. Labrador, N.L., Cumberland–Colchester, N.S., and Lethbridge, Alta., are the sole unchanged ridings in their respective provinces.

sjeffery@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times