The Conservatives’ fundraising machine is expected to smash through its all-time record for the second year in a row, outpacing all other federal parties combined this year to the tune of more than $12-million. Meanwhile, the governing Liberals continue to hold steady toward surpassing the party’s own previous year total. But while the Grits have the money to spend on the long-awaited digital ads released last week, conservative strategist Cole Hogan says trying to match the Tories dollar for dollar is a fool’s errand without a resonant message.

In the third quarter of 2024—from July 1 to Sept. 30—the Conservatives raised more than $8.44-million, averaging $185 from 45,441 individual contributions. While those totals are a slight decrease from this year’s previous quarters, it’s a significant increase compared to the same period last year when the party raised a record-breaking yearly total of $35.2-million for 2023, the first full year under Pierre Poilievre’s (Carleton, Ont.) leadership. That total surpassed the party’s previous non-election year record of $24.2-million in 2018, and both of their 2019 and 2021 election-year totals of $30.8-million and $26.5-million, respectively. 

In 2023, the Conservatives raised $11.9-million in the year’s final three months. With a total of $28.97-million raised in the first three quarters of this year alone, the party will only need to raise just over $6.28-million in the same period to surpass that record. Furthermore, with 148,991 total contributions so far, the Conservatives are 51,258 shy of surpassing last year’s total of 200,248 as well.

While the Conservatives enjoy a $12.1-million lead for the year and a $2.9-million lead for the quarter compared to the other parties’ combined fundraising totals, the governing Liberal Party posted its second-best non-election year third quarter with $3.32-million, averaging $167 from 28,445 contributions. Despite representing a slight decrease from the previous quarter, the only other third quarter with a higher fundraising total was 2018, when the Liberals raised $3.7-million from 33,070 contributions.

With $10.1-million in fundraising over the first three quarters of 2024, the Liberals only need an additional $5.4-million to surpass 2023’s total of $15.6-million. During the fourth quarter of 2023, the Liberals raised $5.79-million from 38,288 contributions.

In third place, the New Democrats raised $1.27-million from 14,082 contributions, for a three-quarter total of $3.9-million, roughly $2.95-million less than the 2023 total of $6.86-million raised from 68,063 contributions. However, the NDP would need to raise slightly more than the $2.65-million it raised during the same period last year to surpass that total. 

The Green Party of Canada’s $379,850 from 4,242 contributions slightly edged out the Bloc Québécois’ $356,397 from 2,229 contributions. There was a three-quarter total of $1.15-million for the Greens, and $1.02-million for the Bloc. In order to surpass their previous year’s totals, the Bloc and Green Party will need an additional $754,085 and $786,806, respectively. 

GT&Co principal Cole Hogan told The Hill Times he has no doubt the Conservatives will not only meet last year’s total, but far surpass it. He noted that donors generally make their largest contributions in the fourth quarter, ahead of tax season.

“The Conservative Party fundraising machine rolls on, and this is just further wind in their sails,” Hogan said in an interview on Oct 30. 

Hogan credited the Conservatives’ ability to consistently hit such large fundraising totals—particularly since Poilievre became leader—to the party’s commitment to engaging with the new members it gained during 2022’s leadership contest. 

Since the fourth quarter of 2022—the first full quarter under Poilievre’s leadership—the party has raised $73.9-million, compared to $31.59-million for the Liberals and $13.3-million for the NDP.

Additionally, Hogan said the Conservatives’ success is a combination of consistent engagement, a resonant message, and a sizeable financial commitment to support both. 

Hogan said the Liberals’ totals show that the party certainly has “money to play with,” but with less than half of the Conservatives’ war chest, the Grits will need to be far more strategic in how they use theirs. 

“As great as digital is for reaching as many people on as many platforms as possible, you still need a significant ground game to actually ID voters, and the Liberals might have to choose between those two things,” Hogan said.  

Last year, the Conservatives spent $8.5-million on advertising, according to the party’s annual financial returns for 2023, which Elections Canada posted online in early July. In comparison, the Liberals spent roughly $381,000 on advertising in 2023, while the NDP spent only about $42,000.

While data on this year’s ad spending is limited, according to Meta’s Ad Library, the Conservative Party of Canada and Poilievre’s official pages spent a combined total of $352,766 in the final month of the third quarter. 

In comparison, the combined totals for the Liberals’ and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s (Papineau, Que.) pages spent $30,327, while the NDP and Leader Jagmeet Singh’s (Burnaby South, B.C.) pages spent a combined $15,618.

On Sept. 29—the day the Conservatives launched their latest “Mountain” ad—they spent $44,318, more than they spent over the first seven days in September. In comparison, the Liberals spent $3,086, while the NDP spent $1,240.

In the month of October, the Conservatives spent a combined $344,942 on the two pages, compared to the Liberals’ combined $14,496, and the NDP’s $120.

Speaking with The Hill Times before the release of the Liberals’ first digital ad on Oct. 31, Hogan said he would pay close attention to not only how much the Liberals are willing to spend on it, but also the “tenor and tone” of the messaging. 

“If the message in those Liberal ads is, ‘our government has accomplished so much,’ no one’s ready to hear that message,” Hogan said. “So you can spend all you want, but it’s still not going to be effective.”

The following day, Oct. 31, the Liberals released their first of two digital ads, highlighting their accomplishments toward “strengthening [Canada’s] health-care system. ” The ad—featuring mostly still images and voiceover—highlights the federal government’s response to COVID-19, the federal dental care and pharmacare programs, and accuses Poilievre of wanting to cut those programs.

According to Meta’s Ad Library, the Liberals spent a combined $1,647 on the same day that the ad was released, compared to the combined $9,448 for the Conservatives’ two pages. 

On Nov. 1, the Liberals released their second ad, once again highlighting the party’s governing record but without mentioning Poilievre. The Liberal and Trudeau pages spent a combined $2,303 that day, compared with the combined $5,637 for the Conservative and Poilievre pages. 

A longtime and vocal advocate for the Liberals to start producing ads, former Grit ministerial staffer Greg MacEachern declined to comment on the content of the ad now that it has arrived, but said he hopes it begins to address the caucus’ long-standing concerns.

However, MacEachern, now a principal at KAN Strategies, did say that, in his experience, the ad would have been far more effective had the extended wait not raised expectations. 

Additionally, he said he hopes there will be more ads forthcoming, as even the most effective, well-funded ad can still fail to make a difference.

“Just look at the amount of money that gets spent on Super Bowl ads every year, and not all of those land,” MacEachern said, adding that he does hope some significant amount is being spent either way rather than “just hoping it goes viral online.”

In response to questions from The Hill Times, Parker Lund, the Liberal Party’s director of communications, confirmed that the new ads would be running on digital platforms and noted the delay in updates to Meta’s ad library data.

While the Liberals may be slowly starting to increase spending on ads, one group has taken up the mantle, promising to go “dollar for dollar” with the Conservatives.  

According to an Oct. 24 report by the Toronto Star, an anonymously funded organization called Protecting Canada—which has ties to the NDP, Liberals, and major unions—is promising to spend “as much as it takes” to match the Conservative “media machine.”

Since the beginning of September, the group has spent more than $187,000 on Meta ads, and from Oct. 14-20, it spent $99,659—more than the Conservatives’ combined page total of $76,290.

While Hogan said the ads he has seen from the group were well produced, he believes its campaign will have the same difficulties as the Liberals, pointing to one ad which features an older video of Poilievre cursing at his fellow committee members.

Hogan said that, for a significant swathe of voters, a video of Poilievre saying “F- you” to a group of Liberal committee members won’t have the intended effect.

“A lot of people would think that’s cool,” Hogan said. “You can’t make a tut-tut argument these days where your argument is, ‘can you believe this guy’s style?’ because it’s going to land poorly … That’s part of the reason why people like them.”

Additionally, despite not knowing where the group is getting its money, Hogan said they may have bitten off more than they can chew. 

“They’re going to have to report back to whoever’s funding this and tell them it’s actually made an impact,” Hogan said. “If they can’t do that, they’re going to have someone breathing down your neck because, wherever that money is coming from, I don’t think it’s an endless well.”

“Even the most strident partisan is gonna say that’s a lot of money for what may be a lost cause, even if they’re really keen to fight it.”

sbenson@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times

Quarterly Fundraising, 2024

Third-quarter fundraising comparison, 2015-present

Third-quarter contribution comparison, 2015-present

Meta ad spending, September and October

 

Stuart Benson began covering Parliament Hill in early 2022, reporting on political party apparatuses and fundraising, policing and public safety, women and youth, marijuana, heritage, the Bloc Québécois, and the Green Party. He is also The Hill Times’ regular Party Central columnist. Benson previously covered local news and municipal politics at The Low Down to Hull and Back News in Wakefield, Que., where he began his professional journalism career in February 2020. He also won a Quebec Community Newspaper Award in 2021 for Best News Story and Best Agricultural Story, as well as winning a Canadian Community Newspaper award for Best Campus News story in 2020. See all stories BY STUART BENSON