OTTAWA—There’s been a lot of chatter lately about a letter signed by 20 Liberal MPs urging Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down. Rumblings of an upset caucus aren’t new to Canadian politics, and certainly not exclusive to the Liberal Party. Too often, the disgruntled backbenchers lack the strategic plan and necessary alternative to do anything but complain. But the current backlash against Trudeau feels different. The exact details of the letter almost don’t matter anymore because the bigger issue is how openly dissatisfied people are. The only thing slipping faster than Trudeau’s grip on his party is his popularity with Canadians.

When Trudeau won in 2015, he picked up the empty shell that was the Liberal Party of Canada, and turned it into a machine powered by his own brand. Now that his star is fading, the whole structure is wobbling, and the challenge facing Liberals is figuring out how to replace Trudeau as head of the “Justin Trudeau Party.” 

But for some MPs, finding a new leader is starting to seem less impossible than trying to win with the one they’ve got. They’re hearing from constituents, and they’re watching the polls. Trudeau’s popularity is sinking to new lows, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are pulling ahead, and the NDP is already outpacing the Liberals outside of Quebec. That’s a serious problem for the red team. One of the certainties in our elections is that the Liberals will rely on scaring progressives into voting for them to stop the Conservatives. But if the NDP keeps gaining steam, those voters might not be so scared anymore. In fact, the so-called “strategic vote” could now be with the NDP instead. In 2011, the NDP only overtook the Liberals mid-campaign. This time, they’re already ahead. The Liberals risk sleepwalking into a repeat of that disaster.

Trudeau’s options are getting more limited by the day.

He could try proroguing Parliament, essentially hitting the pause button for a bit. But it’s a temporary fix, and unless he has a real plan to turn things around, it would only delay the inevitable. Poll numbers don’t go up just because Parliament’s on break. Trudeau’s team has already missed plenty of chances to reset, so it’s hard to imagine they’ll pull off a miracle this time.

Then there’s the idea of a snap election. It’s risky and would almost certainly result in a terrible result for the Liberals right now. But the brutal truth is that waiting might make things even worse. If the Liberals are going to lose, Trudeau could decide it’s better to get it over with before things spiral completely out of control.

Or, he could try ignoring all the noise—pretend the letter doesn’t exist and hope his MPs fall back in line. He could also hold another closed-door meeting as he did at the caucus retreat and show the more “inspiring” movie clips. This time, he could take a more direct approach. He could be tough, or he could be inspiring. But the truth is, neither of these approaches addresses the bigger problem: Canadians are frustrated. People are struggling with inflation, housing prices are through the roof, and the cost-of-living crisis is real. Meanwhile, the opposition is hammering him daily on these issues. Trudeau is taking too many head-on attacks to be able to afford spending any more time focused on internal party drama.

So where does this leave Trudeau and the Liberals? In a pretty tight spot. Whether this letter is the beginning of a real leadership challenge, or just a few frustrated MPs venting, it’s clear that the clock is ticking on the Justin Trudeau era. The Liberals are running out of time to figure out what comes next — and if they don’t, the next election could be a brutal wake-up call.

George Soule is a principal at Syntax Strategic, and a former NDP director of communications.

The Hill Times